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Jaxon Smith-Njigba Seahawks Running

Super Bowl MVP Odds: Examining Value Plays on SB MVP Ahead of Conference Championships

The Super Bowl MVP odds board is about to shorten after Conference Championships, so now may be the last time to grab longshot odds on several candidates. Peter Alexis reviews the Super Bowl MVP odds ahead of Conference Championship weekend.

Peter Alexis - January 22, 2026, 12:45 PM EST

5 Minute Read

Super Bowl MVP Odds: Will Another QB Win Award in Super Bowl 60?

Super Bowl MVP betting always heats up right before the conference championship games, when the field narrows but the matchups are still unknown. This window is where bettors often find the best value. Once the Super Bowl pairing is set, quarterback odds usually shorten dramatically and longshots disappear from the board. If you think you have an angle on which team will advance or which player could erupt on the biggest stage, now is the moment to grab the longer numbers before the market tightens.

This year’s board is especially interesting because several teams enter championship weekend with major injury questions, quarterback uncertainty, or explosive offenses capable of producing non‑QB winners. Historically, quarterbacks dominate this award, but recent seasons have shown that elite receivers, running backs, and even defenders can steal the spotlight if the game script breaks their way.

With that in mind, the current odds offer a mix of heavy favorites and intriguing longshots who could surge if their teams advance. Below is a breakdown of the seven most relevant names on the Super Bowl MVP board heading into championship weekend.

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Super Bowl MVP Odds

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Super Bowl MVP Odds Breakdown

Sam Darnold (+250) Check out these best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook

Darnold sits atop the odds because he is the starting quarterback for a legitimate Super Bowl contender, and quarterbacks almost always control the narrative in these games. If his team wins the NFC and he plays clean, efficient football, he will naturally be the frontrunner for MVP.

Matthew Stafford (+300) Check out these best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook

Stafford is right behind him and has already proven he can deliver on the biggest stage. His connection with Puka Nacua has been electric in the postseason, and if the Rams reach the Super Bowl, Stafford will be in prime position to claim his second MVP trophy.

Drake Maye (+310) Check out these best odds at Caesars Sportsbook

Maye rounds out the trio of quarterbacks at the top. His dual‑threat ability and big‑play upside make him a natural candidate if his team advances. Quarterbacks rarely need a perfect game to win this award, just a few signature moments, and Maye has shown he can produce them.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+1400) Check out these best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook

Smith‑Njigba has emerged as one of the most dangerous weapons in the NFC playoffs. With Klint Kubiak dialing up one of the hottest offenses in football, JSN has a real chance to explode if he finds the end zone multiple times. His yards‑after‑catch ability gives him the kind of highlight potential that voters remember.

Kenneth Walker (+1700) Check out these best odds at Caesars Sportsbook

Walker is another Seahawk who benefits from Kubiak’s offensive surge. He has been running with power and burst throughout the postseason, and if Seattle leans on him in a ball‑control game plan, he could rack up the kind of volume and touchdowns that put a running back in MVP contention.

Puka Nacua (+1700) Check out these best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook

Nacua has been unstoppable in the playoffs and already looks like the next great postseason receiver. The last time a wideout won Super Bowl MVP, it was another Ram, Cooper Kupp in 2022. If Nacua continues his torrid pace and Stafford feeds him early and often, he has a clear path to the award.

Nik Bonitto (+10000) Check out these best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook

Bonitto is the longshot with the most realistic path if Denver reaches the Super Bowl. With Bo Nix injured and Jarrett Stidham under center, the Broncos are far more likely to win with defense than offense. Bonitto has been their most disruptive defender, and the last time a defensive player won Super Bowl MVP, it was also a Bronco, Von Miller in 2016. If Denver pulls off an upset behind a dominant defensive performance, Bonitto becomes a live ticket.

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