2026 NFL MVP Odds: Josh Allen Favored for Second MVP Award Over Jackson, Burrow, Herbert
The 2026 NFL MVP race features three former winners at the top of the market, followed by several quarterbacks seeking their first award. Can Matthew Stafford repeat after his career-best season, or will Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson or one of the emerging challengers take control? Check out the latest NFL MVP odds and outlook for the top nine candidates.
Peter Alexis - August 6, 2026, 3:55 PM EDT
6 Minute ReadLatest NFL MVP Odds as Preseason Begins - Allen Favored in Talented Group of Quarterback Leaders
Josh Allen enters as the +650 favorite, followed by Lamar Jackson at +850 and Joe Burrow at +900. Justin Herbert is the only other candidate shorter than +1200, while Patrick Mahomes, Drake Maye, Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford and Caleb Williams complete a quarterback-only top nine.
Team success remains one of the strongest MVP indicators, creating a clear relationship between these prices and the Super Bowl market. Stafford’s Rams are +550 championship favorites, Buffalo is second at +1000 and Baltimore is tied for third at +1200. The largest disconnect belongs to Burrow, whose individual odds are +900 despite Cincinnati sitting at +2200 to win the Super Bowl.
2026 NFL MVP Odds
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2026 NFL MVP Odds Breakdown
Josh Allen (+650) Check out these best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
Buffalo Bills Super Bowl Odds: +1000
Allen followed his 2024 MVP campaign by completing 69.4% of his passes for 3,668 yards, 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, posting a 102.2 passer rating while leading Buffalo to a 12-5 record. He finished third in the 2025 MVP voting with two first-place votes, but the Bills were eliminated in overtime by Denver during the Divisional Round. Allen’s passing totals declined from his most productive seasons, yet his rushing ability and command of one of the league’s highest-scoring offenses kept him firmly among the award finalists.
Buffalo’s +1000 Super Bowl price strengthens Allen’s position as the favorite. The Bills remain one of the AFC’s most complete teams, and Joe Brady’s promotion to head coach should preserve an offense built around Allen’s strengths. Winning a second MVP will likely require a statistical increase, the AFC’s No. 1 seed or both, particularly after Stafford and Maye produced superior passing numbers last season. The path is clean, but +650 leaves little room for another season in which Buffalo wins 12 games without Allen leading the league in a major category.
Lamar Jackson (+850) Check out these best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl Odds: +1200
Jackson was limited to 13 games during Baltimore’s disappointing 8-9 season, completing 63.6% of his passes for 2,549 yards, 21 touchdowns and seven interceptions. His 103.8 passer rating and 8.4 yards per attempt remained strong, but injuries interrupted his rhythm and the Ravens missed the postseason after losing to Pittsburgh in Week 18. Jackson has already won MVP twice, including a unanimous victory in 2019 and his second award in 2023.
Baltimore’s +1200 Super Bowl odds reflect the ceiling of a roster that was better than its losing record, but the coaching transition introduces substantial uncertainty. Jesse Minter replaces John Harbaugh, while Jackson must learn another version of the offense after an injury-disrupted year. A healthy season could quickly place him back near 4,000 combined passing and rushing yards, especially with Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews returning. Voter fatigue is a consideration for any two-time winner, so Jackson may need Baltimore to secure a top-two seed and produce a clearly dominant statistical profile.
Joe Burrow (+900) Check out these best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
Cincinnati Bengals Super Bowl Odds: +2200
Burrow played only eight games after undergoing surgery for a Grade 3 turf toe injury suffered in Week 2. He returned late in the season and finished with 1,809 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, five interceptions and a 100.7 passer rating, but Cincinnati went 6-11 and missed the playoffs for a third consecutive year. The injury followed Burrow’s 2024 season in which he led the league with 4,918 passing yards and 43 touchdowns, won Comeback Player of the Year and finished as an MVP finalist.
The +900 price assumes a full return to the form that made Burrow one of the league’s most productive quarterbacks. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins give him the receiving talent required to lead the NFL in yards and touchdowns, but the Bengals must improve dramatically around him. Their +2200 Super Bowl odds show how much less confidence the market has in the defense, offensive line and overall roster. Burrow can generate MVP statistics on a flawed team, but Cincinnati likely needs at least 10 or 11 victories for those numbers to carry enough weight.
Justin Herbert (+1000) Check out these best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
Los Angeles Chargers Super Bowl Odds: +1800
Herbert completed 66.4% of his passes for 3,727 yards, 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions across 16 games last season. The Chargers finished 11-6 but were eliminated by New England in a 16-3 Wild Card loss, continuing the disconnect between Herbert’s individual talent and the franchise’s postseason production. He was sacked 54 times during the regular season, yet still received one first-place MVP vote as Stafford narrowly defeated Maye for the award.
Mike McDaniel’s arrival as offensive coordinator creates the strongest MVP case of Herbert’s career. His system should increase tempo, pre-snap motion and yards after the catch while allowing Herbert to attack more aggressively than he did under Greg Roman. The return of tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt should also reduce the pressure that repeatedly disrupted the offense. Los Angeles carries a challenging schedule and must compete with Denver and Kansas City in the AFC West, but a top-three offense paired with 12 victories would place Herbert firmly in the center of the race.
Patrick Mahomes (+1200) Check out these best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl Odds: +1600
Mahomes passed for 3,587 yards, 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in 14 games while adding 422 rushing yards and five scores. Kansas City finished 6-11, lost its final six games and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2014. Mahomes’ season ended after he tore his ACL and LCL, requiring surgery and an extensive rehabilitation process. He is a two-time league MVP, winning in 2018 and 2022, and remains the most accomplished quarterback in the market.
The +1200 odds combine Mahomes’ reputation with the uncertainty surrounding his knee. Kansas City added Kenneth Walker III and brought Eric Bieniemy back as offensive coordinator, giving the offense a more explosive backfield and a familiar voice. However, an opening-week return does not guarantee that Mahomes will immediately regain his mobility or play without restrictions. A dramatic Chiefs rebound would generate a powerful MVP narrative, but the injury risk makes this price less attractive than it would be under normal circumstances.
Drake Maye (+1200) Check out these best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
New England Patriots Super Bowl Odds: +2000
Maye produced the breakout season of 2025, completing an NFL-best 72% of his passes for 4,394 yards, 31 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He also rushed for 450 yards and four touchdowns while leading the league with a 113.5 passer rating. New England improved from four victories to 14, reached Super Bowl LX and lost 29-13 to Seattle. Maye received 23 first-place MVP votes and finished only five points behind Stafford in the closest race since the shared award in 2003.
The Patriots’ +2000 Super Bowl price is longer than the odds for several teams that finished far behind them, showing that the market expects some regression. Maye’s efficiency will be difficult to repeat, particularly after posting 8.9 yards per attempt while completing nearly three-quarters of his passes. Still, his combination of arm strength, mobility and proven team success makes +1200 compelling. He does not need another 14-win season to contend, but New England must remain near the top of the AFC for voters to treat 2025 as sustainable growth rather than a one-year surge.
Dak Prescott (+1400) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Dallas Cowboys Super Bowl Odds: +2500
Prescott returned from his 2024 hamstring injury and completed 67.3% of his passes for 4,552 yards, 30 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Dallas produced 471 points but finished only 7-9-1 because its defense allowed 511, preventing Prescott’s statistical rebound from translating into a playoff appearance. He placed third in the Comeback Player of the Year voting and has previously come close to MVP, finishing second to Jackson in the 2023 race.
Prescott’s +1400 odds are built around volume and the possibility of Dallas turning close losses into victories. He has already demonstrated that he can produce an MVP-caliber passing season, and the Cowboys should again lean heavily on him to drive the offense. The +2500 Super Bowl price reflects the larger concern. Dallas must repair a defense that surrendered more than 30 points per game before Prescott can build a winning résumé strong enough to accompany his statistics. A 4,500-yard season will not be sufficient if the Cowboys remain near .500.
Matthew Stafford (+1400) Check out these best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
Los Angeles Rams Super Bowl Odds: +550
Stafford enters as the defending MVP after leading the NFL with 4,707 passing yards and 46 touchdowns against only eight interceptions. He posted a 109.2 passer rating, directed the league’s highest-scoring offense and helped Los Angeles finish 12-5 before losing 31-27 to Seattle in the NFC Championship Game. Stafford received 24 first-place votes and defeated Maye by five total points to win the first league MVP award of his career.
The Rams are clear +550 Super Bowl favorites, giving Stafford the strongest team correlation on the board. Puka Nacua, Davante Adams and Kyren Williams return around him, while major defensive upgrades should create more favorable game scripts and additional possessions. The concern is whether Stafford can repeat an extraordinary 46-touchdown season at age 38, particularly if Los Angeles wins more games through defense and balance. His +1400 price is substantially longer than the Rams’ championship odds because repeating as MVP requires another statistically exceptional year, not merely another deep playoff run.
Caleb Williams (+1600) Check out these best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
Chicago Bears Super Bowl Odds: +2500
Williams completed 58.1% of his passes for 3,942 yards, 27 touchdowns and seven interceptions during his second season. He improved his passer rating to 90.1, led six fourth-quarter comebacks and helped Chicago finish 11-6 and win the NFC North. Williams then threw for 381 yards and two touchdowns in a comeback victory over Green Bay before the Bears lost 20-17 to the Rams in the Divisional Round.
The third-year leap is one of the market’s strongest narratives. Williams now has another full offseason with Ben Johnson and a young collection of receivers and tight ends that includes Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland. His seven interceptions demonstrated improved ball security, but the completion percentage and overall efficiency must rise for a true MVP campaign. Chicago’s +2500 Super Bowl odds create some separation from Williams’ +1600 individual price, yet another division title combined with 35 or more total touchdowns could move him near the top of the board.
NFL MVP Betting Outlook
Allen has the clearest path and deserves favorite status, but his +650 price requires Buffalo to remain near the top of the AFC while his statistics improve. Jackson and Mahomes carry stronger award history, although coaching changes in Baltimore and Mahomes’ rehabilitation create substantial risk.
Maye offers the strongest combination of recent performance and price after finishing within five points of winning last season. Stafford’s +1400 odds also stand out because the Rams are overwhelming Super Bowl favorites and return the offensive personnel that supported his 46-touchdown campaign. Burrow, Herbert and Williams have the statistical ceilings to win their first MVP awards, but each needs a significant team-level breakthrough to complete the case.
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