NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds: Patrick Mahomes Massive Favorite After Hot Start in Injury Return
Patrick Mahomes has taken complete control of the NFL Comeback Player of the Year race after returning from major knee surgery to lead Kansas City to a 4-0 start. Kyler Murray remains the closest challenger after guiding Minnesota to an unbeaten start of its own, while Michael Penix Jr. and Kirk Cousins sit well behind the favorite. Check out the latest NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds entering Week 6.
Peter Alexis - October 13, 2026, 4:35 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadCan Anyone Catch Patrick Mahomes in Comeback Player of the Year Odds Race?
Mahomes entered the season as one of the most fascinating comeback stories in recent NFL history after tearing his ACL and LCL late in 2025. Five weeks later, the injury has barely seemed to matter as Kansas City has returned to the top of the AFC behind a healthy Mahomes and an improved offense.
The market now reflects that separation. Mahomes is an overwhelming -260 favorite, while Murray, Penix and Cousins need both strong individual production and sustained team success to realistically close the gap.
2026 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds
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NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds Breakdown
Patrick Mahomes -260 Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Mahomes' most recent appearance came in Kansas City's 30-27 road win over Las Vegas before the Week 5 bye. He completed 15 of 30 passes for 225 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions as the Chiefs improved to 4-0.
Through four games, Mahomes has completed 82 of 128 passes for 1,037 yards, nine touchdowns and two interceptions while adding 41 rushing yards and one touchdown. He has already produced three games with multiple passing touchdowns and has thrown only one interception over his last three starts.
That production is impressive on its own, but the comeback context makes the case even stronger. Mahomes underwent surgery after tearing both his ACL and LCL in December, then returned in time to start Week 1 and immediately helped Kansas City erase the disappointment of a six-win 2025 season.
The Chiefs host the winless Chargers next. Los Angeles has struggled defensively and is dealing with injuries throughout the roster, giving Mahomes another favorable opportunity to strengthen an already commanding lead in the market.
Kyler Murray +1400 Check out these best odds at bet365 Sportsbook
Murray produced his best performance of the season in Minnesota's 23-13 win at New Orleans, completing 24 of 30 passes for 229 yards and one touchdown while rushing 10 times for 51 yards. He completed his first 12 passes and protected the football as the Vikings improved to 5-0.
Murray has completed 69 of 101 passes for 662 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions this season while adding 93 rushing yards on 20 carries. Those passing numbers are modest, but his efficiency has improved considerably over the last two weeks after a difficult start.
His comeback story is also broader than just this season. Murray played only five games for Arizona in 2025 while dealing with a foot injury, was released during the offseason and then landed in Minnesota with Kevin O'Connell. Starting 5-0 after that sequence gives him one of the strongest narratives behind Mahomes.
Minnesota is off in Week 6 before hosting Indianapolis on October 25. Justin Jefferson is back in the lineup, but injuries to Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson have forced Murray to operate without all of his weapons at times. If the Vikings continue winning and Murray's production climbs, +1400 is the most realistic alternative to Mahomes.
Michael Penix Jr. +1500 Check out these best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
Penix continued his encouraging return in Atlanta's 30-23 loss to Baltimore, completing 19 of 32 passes for 240 yards and one touchdown without an interception. He also added eight rushing yards while playing through another physical game.
Through three starts, Penix has completed 52 of 77 passes for 719 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. He is averaging more than nine yards per attempt and has posted a passer rating above 93.0 in all three starts.
Penix is returning from another torn ACL after suffering the injury during the 2025 season, making simply getting back onto the field a major part of his candidacy. Atlanta lost its first two games while he was unavailable before Penix helped produce consecutive wins over Green Bay and New Orleans.
The Falcons host Chicago next. Atlanta's offense has looked substantially more explosive with Penix under center, but his case will need more touchdowns and more team wins to realistically threaten Mahomes. Staying healthy is also critical given his lengthy knee history.
Kirk Cousins +2500 Check out these best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
Cousins remains one of the more interesting long shots despite Las Vegas' recent slide. He completed 19 of 28 passes for 243 yards and one touchdown without an interception in the Raiders' 45-17 loss to New England.
Through five games, Cousins has completed 112 of 172 passes for 1,269 yards, 12 touchdowns and four interceptions with a 100.6 passer rating. He opened the season with three consecutive three-touchdown performances and has thrown at least one touchdown in every game.
His comeback case is different from the injury-driven stories of Mahomes and Penix. Cousins struggled through an uneven 2025 season in Atlanta, lost his starting job before later returning to the lineup and then moved to Las Vegas. He has already exceeded his 2025 touchdown total through only five games.
The Raiders host Buffalo next, creating one of the most difficult matchups on the Week 6 schedule. Las Vegas has lost two straight after a 3-0 start, so Cousins needs both the team and his own production to stabilize quickly if he is going to remain relevant in this market.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year Outlook
Mahomes has created a massive gap between himself and everyone else. Returning from ACL and LCL surgery to immediately start 4-0 while throwing nine touchdowns gives him the strongest combination of narrative, production and team success.
Murray is the clearest challenger because Minnesota is 5-0 and his comeback includes both recovering from injury and rebuilding his career with a new franchise. Penix has the stronger pure injury-return angle, while Cousins owns the best statistical production of the longer shots.
For now, however, this race belongs overwhelmingly to Mahomes. A healthy season combined with another Kansas City playoff run could make Comeback Player of the Year one of the least competitive award markets by December.
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