NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds: Denzel Boston, Jeremiyah Love Lead Lackluster OROY Race After 5 Weeks

Who Will Separate Themselves in Offensive ROY Race After Slow Start?

Five weeks into the season, Boston has emerged as the most productive rookie receiver and the slight favorite in the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year race that remains extremely tight at the top. Love has the workload advantage as Arizona's starting running back, but the Cardinals' offensive problems have kept his raw production relatively modest.

The next group brings considerably more uncertainty. Tate has already established himself as Tennessee's top receiver, while Concepcion, Antonio Williams and Makai Lemon could all gain opportunities through injuries around them. Fernando Mendoza remains the biggest wild card because his candidacy depends almost entirely on whether Las Vegas eventually hands him the starting quarterback job.

2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds

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Denzel Boston +200 Check out these best odds at bet365 Sportsbook

Boston strengthened his position as the favorite despite Cleveland's 17-12 loss to the Jets, catching three of seven targets for 46 yards and his third touchdown of the season. He has produced at least 40 receiving yards in all five games and already owns receptions of 46, 55 and 60 yards.

Through five games, Boston has 16 receptions for 330 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 20.6 yards per catch. He leads Cleveland in receiving yards, is tied for the team lead with 29 targets and has quickly established himself as the Browns' primary downfield threat.

KC Concepcion entering concussion protocol could create an even larger role against Baltimore this week. The Ravens have been vulnerable against opposing receivers, and a Concepcion absence would leave Boston with an excellent opportunity to push his target volume above the seven looks he received last week.

Boston's combination of consistency, explosive plays and touchdown production makes him the most complete candidate in the race right now. If his role expands while Concepcion recovers, the +200 price could shorten quickly.

Jeremiyah Love +230 Check out these best odds at bet365 Sportsbook

Love's candidacy has cooled slightly after being held to 22 yards on 12 carries in Arizona's 45-21 loss to Detroit. It was his least productive game of the season and continued a frustrating stretch for an offense that has dropped four straight games.

Love has 67 carries for 245 yards and one rushing touchdown through five games, averaging 3.7 yards per carry. He has added 11 receptions for 36 yards and another touchdown, giving him 281 yards from scrimmage and two total scores.

The biggest problem may be the environment around him. Arizona has lost starting tackle Paris Johnson Jr. to injured reserve, further weakening an offensive line that has struggled to consistently create rushing lanes. The Cardinals are also massive underdogs against the Rams this week, creating the possibility that Love's rushing workload disappears if Los Angeles builds an early lead.

The positive is that Love remains one of the only rookie backs with a true starting workload. A few 100-yard performances would quickly change the complexion of the race, but Arizona needs to give him better opportunities before that ceiling becomes realistic.

Carnell Tate +600 Check out these best odds at bet365 Sportsbook

Tate's momentum stalled against Houston after his breakout performance the previous week. He caught only one of five targets for six yards in Tennessee's 26-3 loss after entering the game questionable with a back injury.

The fourth overall pick has 23 receptions on 37 targets for 274 yards through five games, averaging 11.9 yards per catch. He has yet to score his first NFL touchdown, but his nine-catch, 145-yard performance against Baltimore showed the type of ceiling that keeps him firmly in the award race.

Tennessee visits Indianapolis next, giving Tate a much friendlier matchup than he saw against Houston's secondary. The Titans are 0-5 and regularly playing from behind, which should continue creating passing volume for Cam Ward and his rookie No. 1 receiver.

The back injury is worth monitoring after Tate was limited late last week. If he is fully healthy, the bigger concern is simply Tennessee's offense producing enough touchdowns to allow his statistics to compete with Boston and Love.

KC Concepcion +2000 Check out these best odds at bet365 Sportsbook

Concepcion's Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign hit an unfortunate obstacle against the Jets. He caught one pass for five yards before taking a hard hit in the first quarter and leaving the game with a concussion.

The Browns rookie has 18 receptions for 149 yards through five games, along with four carries for nine yards. He has yet to score a touchdown, although his role had been trending upward before the injury, including five catches for 64 yards against Pittsburgh in Week 4.

Concepcion is now in concussion protocol ahead of Cleveland's home matchup against Baltimore. Missing even one game would be damaging in an award race where Boston is already 181 receiving yards and three touchdowns ahead despite playing in the same offense.

There is still long-term upside if Concepcion returns quickly. Cleveland has consistently manufactured touches for him both as a receiver and runner, but health now matters more than anything else for his chances of closing the gap.

Antonio Williams +2500 Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

Williams continued his steady rookie season with three receptions for 31 yards in Washington's 27-27 tie against the Giants. He has caught at least two passes in every game and has remained involved regardless of which quarterback has been available.

Williams has 15 receptions for 155 yards and one touchdown through five games, averaging 10.3 yards per reception. His best performance remains his NFL debut against Philadelphia, when he caught all four of his targets for 64 yards and a touchdown.

The biggest opportunity comes from Washington's injury situation. Stefon Diggs has been sidelined and Terry McLaurin has been battling a hamstring injury, opening snaps and targets for Williams. Jayden Daniels returning at quarterback also raises the ceiling of the entire passing game.

The problem is the upcoming matchup. Washington travels to undefeated San Francisco, where sustained offensive production will be difficult. Williams needs the veteran receivers to remain limited long enough for him to establish a permanent role rather than simply serving as an injury replacement.

Fernando Mendoza +2500 Check out these best odds at bet365 Sportsbook

Mendoza finally made his NFL debut during Las Vegas' 45-17 loss to New England, entering for the final possession with the game already decided. The No. 1 overall pick completed six of eight passes for 48 yards and added a three-yard scramble, nearly converting a fourth down near the red zone.

Those are also Mendoza's complete regular-season statistics: 6-of-8 passing for 48 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions. It was a small sample, but he looked composed and completed his first five NFL attempts.

The issue is playing time. Kirk Cousins remains the Raiders' starting quarterback and has thrown for 1,268 yards and 12 touchdowns through five games, giving Las Vegas little reason to make an immediate change. Mendoza cannot realistically win an award from the bench regardless of how impressive he looked in limited action.

Las Vegas hosts Buffalo next. Another lopsided game could create additional snaps for Mendoza, but his +2500 candidacy only becomes truly interesting if the Raiders eventually decide to transition from Cousins to their first overall pick.

Makai Lemon +3000 Check out these best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook

Lemon produced the best game of his young career against Jacksonville, catching five of seven targets for 43 yards in Philadelphia's 19-17 loss. Both the receptions and receiving yards were career highs, continuing a gradual increase in his involvement.

Lemon now has 15 receptions on 22 targets for 108 yards through five games, averaging 7.2 yards per catch. He also has one rushing attempt for minus-five yards and has yet to score his first NFL touchdown.

Philadelphia's injuries have created the opportunity. DeVonta Smith has missed the last two games with a hamstring injury, while Saquon Barkley has also been sidelined. Lemon has seen 13 targets over those two games after receiving only nine across the first three weeks.

Smith could return against Carolina, which would likely reduce Lemon's target share. Darius Cooper has also emerged as a major competitor for touches, so Lemon needs to turn the increased opportunities into explosive plays and touchdowns before Philadelphia's established weapons get healthy.

Boston currently has the strongest combination of production and opportunity, while Love's workload keeps the race close. Tate remains the most realistic challenger outside the top two, but the longer shots will need either major statistical breakouts or significant changes in their team situations to seriously enter the conversation.

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