PGA Power Rankings: Top 5 Golfers For The Sentry

PGA Power Rankings: Top 5 Golfers For The Sentry

The 2024 PGA Tour season is officially underway this week. 59 golfers will compete at The Sentry event, which will not enforce a cut-line. All players either won a PGA Tour event in 2023 or finished top 50 in the FedExCup rankings, qualifying and competing in the BMW Championship event.

Now labelled as a Signature Event, replacing Designated Event terminology from last year, The Sentry will be the first of eight signature events held in 2024. Unlike previous years, eligible qualifiers do not have to commit, which is why Rory McIlroy won't be competing at The Sentry this weekend.

Held in Maui, Hawaii at the Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort, this event has a very friendly course that yields low scores due to its layout. Coastal breeze is expected, which will likely be the biggest challenge to overcome, otherwise, this event should be a birdie-fest, offering plenty of entertainment value to watch and enjoy.

PGA handicapper Matt MacKay is back to share his latest PGA power rankings for The Sentry, analyzing the course, while providing analysis for five of his favorite outright prospects to wager during the first PGA Tour event of the 2024 season.

THE SENTRY DATE, START TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH

• Date: January 4 - 7, 2024
• Where: Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort, Maui, Hawaii
• Where to Watch: ESPN+, Golf Channel, NBC

THE SENTRY COURSE

One of the few par 73 courses on the PGA Tour, the Plantation Course at Kapalua runs 7,596 yards, featuring four par 3s and four par 5s, offering plenty of variance for players to experience. Bermudagrass comprises the fairways and rough, the latter of which stands at two and a half inches, while the greens are Tifeagle Bermudagrass, measuring 11 feet via Stimpmeter.

Cameron Smith set the course record at 258 in 2022, while we saw Jon Rahm usurp Collin Morikawa down the stretch in 2023, winning with a final score of -27-under-par, defeating Morikawa by two strokes. All players who logged a T11 finish logged at least -20-under-par or better, demonstrating the relative easiness compared to other PGA Tour venues.

Few water hazards abound, with a couple of doglegged fairways. Sand bunkers flank most fairways and greens, while several of the holes run parallel with the coast line, which could usher in winds to complicate shots off the tee and approaching the green.

THE SENTRY ODDS

THE SENTRY POWER RANKINGS

PATRICK CANTLAY +1200 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

Patrick Cantlay is among the most consistent players when it comes to finishing T25 or better on the PGA Tour. In 2023, Cantlay started 70-70, putting him behind before going 66-68 over the weekend to wind up finishing T16 at -18-under-par. He's finished T16, 4th, T13, and 4th in his previous four appearances.

Cantlay's putter tends to get hot, and on Bermudagrass greens that run slightly slower than average at 11 feet via Stimpmeter, we could see the Californian go on a tear. +1000 odds puts him tied third with Collin Morikawa, so oddsmakers expect Cantlay to be atop the leaderboard once Sunday arrives.

COLLIN MORIKAWA +1200 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

Expect Collin Morikawa to be motivated to avenge his meltdown at Sentry last year, when he strung together a series of bogeys, allowing Jon Rahm to climb into the lead for an outright win on Sunday. Morikawa finally sealed an outright win at the ZOZO Championship overseas back in October, giving him confidence entering The Sentry.

Morikawa is equipped with some of the best ball-striking on the PGA Tour, while his volatile putting keeps him from stacking wins in every event. Previous finishes of second, T5, T7, and T7 suggest that the 26-year-old American is ready to flood his scorecard with birdies, seeking his seventh career win since turning pro in 2019.

MATT FITZPATRICK +2200 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

A big drop off in outright odds between Cantlay and Morikawa finds Matt Fitzpatrick at +2200. The Englishman made his debut at The Sentry in 2023, logging a T7 finish, going 66-69-66-70 thanks to his red-hot putting ability.

Fitzpatrick is another premier ball-striker with plenty of experience combating coastal winds while playing on links courses in England, which could give him an edge with winds expected to hit Maui for the majority of The Sentry. +2200 is solid value for Fitzpatrick, who has won an outright event in back-to-back seasons. His tendency to have a bad round, whether early or late in an event, creates some risk backing Fitzpatrick outright, but he's also capable of going on a run, so it's worth sprinkling on his +2200 odds this weekend.

TOM KIM +2800 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

Tom Kim is my favorite outright bet at The Sentry this week. Kim made his debut in 2023, logging a T5 finish, going 65-69-68-68. His opening round 65 set the 21-year-old South Korean native up for big success, relying on his tee-to-green ability, which he ranked highest in during last year's event.

Kim's putting is his Achilles heel, ranking 73rd in 2023, but his ball-striking is pure, finishing 19th in total strokes gained, including 10th off-the-tee, while finishing 21st in total driving. His game is designed to dominate soft courses like Kapalua, plus, he ranked top-30 for greens in regulation and hole proximity. This helps counter his spotty putting, but we've seen Kim get hot with the flat stick, which makes him a huge value in the outright market at +2800.

SUNGJAE IM +3500 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

Sungjae Im is a season veteran on the PGA Tour despite only being 25 years old. Im has made multiple trips to Kapalua to compete in The Sentry, going T5, T8, and T13 in his previous three appearances at this event.

Im struggled a bit more than we've grown accustomed to seeing in 2023, ranking 87th in strokes gained on approach, but he still finished 17th in strokes gained around the green, 24th strokes gained off the tee, and 26th strokes gained tee-to-green. Im's putter was 62nd, but he ranked 18th going for the green, while also finishing 40th in scrambling. +3500 odds imply oddsmakers are still devaluing Im from his overall performance last season, but his consistency finishing T13 or better makes him worth a sprinkle at this number.

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