PGA Power Rankings: Top 5 Golfers For The Players Championship

PGA Power Rankings: Top 5 Golfers For The Players Championship

The 50th edition of The PLAYERS Championship will be held at TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, as the latest event on the 2024 PGA Tour circuit.

Located on the coast outside of downtown Jacksonville, this northern Florida course will test the ball-striking accuracy amongst the field of 144 golfers who have qualified for the event. Scottie Scheffler returns as the defending champion at The PLAYERS following his exceptional final round to notch a five-stroke win during the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill this past Sunday. Naturally, Scheffler is once again the odds on favorite at +550 odds, while Rory McIlroy is a distant second at +1200 in the outright betting market.

PGA handicapper Matt MacKay is here to analyze the PGA Tour outright betting market entering the first round of The PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass that tees off on Thursday morning.

THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP DATE, START TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH

• Date: March 14-17, 2024
• Where: TPC Sawgrass (The Players Stadium Course), Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
• Where to Watch: ESPN+, Golf Channel, NBC

PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP COURSE

Like the Florida courses we've seen thus far, TPC Sawgrass is filled with water hazards, sand bunkers, and doglegged fairways. It demands precision off-the-tee and approaching the greens, which are a bit smaller in average surface area at 5,500 feet compared to places like PGA National and Bay Hill. Scorecards should hover between -10-under-par and 17-under-par, the latter set by Scheffler during his five-stroke win here a year ago.

Designed by Pete Dye and Deane Beman, the course underwent some modifications in the past decade, while preserving the stadium style seating for attendees like we've seen during the Waste Management Phoenix Open earlier this season. It's a par 72 that runs over 7,200 yards with four par 3s and four par 5s, with the iconic island green on the 17th hole par 3. Tifeagle Bermudagrass green speeds are estimated to run upwards of 13 feet again like last week, while the rough is four inches, punishing errant lies.

PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS

PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP POWER RANKINGS

1. Scottie Scheffler (+550) CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS

We've never seen a golfer defend his title at TPC Sawgrass during The PLAYERS Championship, with only 11 successfully winning twice at this event. Scheffler's switch to a mallet putter wound up catapulting him atop the leaderboard during the final two rounds at Bay Hill last week, while he ranked first in virtually every strokes gained metric.

Based on the history of this course, it's an uphill battle for Scheffler to win back-to-back titles here, but the momentum he's carrying from last week cannot be denied. Let's stake a full unit on Scheffler at +550 odds, which could look extremely lucrative by the time Sunday's final round gets underway.

2. Justin Thomas (+2200) CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS

We're jumping down to +2200 odds to invest in Justin Thomas. It's been two years since we've seen Thomas earn an outright win, but he has 15 in his career, while playing good enough for a T12 finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week. After a solid start, going under par in the first two rounds, Thomas regressed and went +1 in his final two rounds.

This week, J.T. has another chance to seize a win at a course he's played well at many times. TPC Sawgrass demands elite ball-striking, which Thomas possesses in spades. He's 30th strokes gained on approach and 21st around the green, while 8th tee-to-green. Putting is the primary issue for Thomas, ranked 136th in strokes gained putting, but he did win this event in 2021.

+2200 is great value for a player like Thomas, who seems to have mostly turned the corner from a down year in 2023. Let's stake 0.25 units on Thomas to return to form and contend atop the leaderboard on Sunday afternoon.

3. Viktor Hovland (+2500) CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS

The talent is undeniable with Viktor Hovland but he's gotten off to a slow start in 2024. The defending FedExCup champion has yet to win at TPC Sawgrass but he came close last year, winding up with a T3 finish at -10-under-par. Hovland is 22nd in par 5 birdie leaders and 1st in par 3 birdie leaders, so he'll have plenty of opportunities to fill his scorecard with circles this week.

Hovland went under par in all four rounds and he's another great ball-striker whose game is complimented at this course. Ranked 37th strokes gained off-the-tee and 61st strokes gained putting, approaching the green has been an issue for the Norwegian golfer this year. He's ranked 121st strokes gained on approach but he counters this with a solid flat stick, ranking 32nd in total putting.

Another 0.25 unit wager is worth investing on Hovland at +2500 odds in the outright betting market before Thursday's first round tees off.

4. Sahith Theegala (+6500) CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS

TPC Sawgrass hasn't been kind to Sahith Theegala in two previous appearances, missing the cut in 2022 and finishing 74th in 2023 at +10. However, Theegala has been playing well lately, managing fifth-place and T6 finishes at the WM Phoenix Open and API this past week.

Ranked 29th strokes gained off-the-tee and 21st strokes gained putting, Theegala is also 34th tee-to-green. He's 31st in birdie average and 42nd or better in par 4 and par 5 birdie or better leaders. Round 3 is when Theegala tends to regress, so if he can stay in contention on "Moving Day" on Saturday, assuming he makes the cut, watch out for the California native to make some noise on Sunday.

A 0.10 unit wager is all we need to turn a nice profit on Theegala at +6500 odds in the PGA Tour's outright betting market.

5. Andrew Novak (+17000) CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS

Finally, one of the hottest iron players on the PGA Tour, Andrew Novak, comes in with lucrative +17000 odds in the outright betting market. Novak already has three T10 finishes in three straight events after missing the first three cuts in January.

Novak ranks fourth strokes gained on approach, fourth tee-to-green, and sixth around the green. The putter is mediocre, ranked 88th in this strokes gained metric, but off-the-tee is where the 28-year-old tends to go awry. Novak ranks 20th converting greens in regulation at 72.5 percent, while 12th for hole proximity.

Sand isn't a problem either, as Novak is ranked 10th for sand save percentage. He's 30th for bogey avoidance and tends to start hot, ranked 18th for Round 1 scoring average, so Novak is certainly in play despite this long number. Let's stake another 0.10 unit wager on Novak to finally breakthrough with his first career win.

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GOLF ODDS

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