U.S. Open Top 10 Finish Odds: Will Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy Finish in Top 10 at Shinnecock?
The 2026 U.S. Open top 10 market is loaded with major champions and proven Shinnecock fits. Scottie Scheffler is the only player with a minus-money top 10 price, but Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Tommy Fleetwood, and Matt Fitzpatrick all bring strong résumés into the week. Here is a look at the top U.S. Open top 10 finish odds and how each contender fits Shinnecock Hills.
Peter Alexis - June 18, 2026, 11:00 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadU.S. Open Top 10 Finish Odds: Who Will Dominate at Shinnecock This Weekend?
Shinnecock Hills should create a difficult scoring environment, which makes the top 10 market especially interesting. This is not just about players who can go low. It is about players who can avoid disaster, handle wind, manage firm greens, and stay patient when the course demands conservative decisions.
The six shortest prices all have legitimate cases, but they arrive with different profiles. Scheffler is the safest current form play, Schauffele and Fleetwood have excellent U.S. Open and Shinnecock history, while McIlroy, Rahm, and Fitzpatrick all bring major-winning pedigree into one of golf’s toughest tests.
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U.S. Open Top 10 Finish Odds
2026 U.S. Open Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Thursday, June 18th - Sunday, June 21st, 2026
- Time: 7:00 AM ET
- Where to Watch: NBC, Peacock, NBCSN, USA Network
Click here for complete 2026 U.S. Open Odds
2026 U.S. Open Top 10 Finish Odds Breakdown
Scottie Scheffler (-115) Check out the best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
Scheffler is the clear top 10 favorite at -115, and the price reflects his week-to-week reliability more than anything else. He is chasing the career Grand Slam, with the U.S. Open still the missing major, and his tee-to-green consistency gives him the safest floor in the field.
His recent best major finishes remain elite, including a runner-up at the 2026 Masters and two major wins in 2025. The Shinnecock angle is more about course fit than course history, because his ability to control approaches and avoid big numbers should play anywhere. At minus money, this is not cheap, but it is the most logical top 10 price on the board.
Rory McIlroy (+150) Check out the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
McIlroy is +150 to finish top 10, giving him a plus-money price despite his status as one of the biggest names in the field. He won the U.S. Open in 2011 and has been far more consistent in this championship since missing the cut at Shinnecock in 2018.
The key is whether his driver cooperates. Shinnecock’s wider fairways should help him find enough angles, but the greens and wind will still test his patience. McIlroy has the power and major résumé to finish near the top, but this number is more about trusting his recent U.S. Open growth than his last trip to this course.
Jon Rahm (+187) Check out the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Rahm is +187 to finish top 10, and the number is appealing for a player who already owns a U.S. Open title. He won the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines and has shown recent major form, including a runner-up finish at the PGA Championship and multiple top-10 results across his last several major starts.
Rahm missed the cut at Shinnecock in 2018, but his game is far more complete now. His power, controlled aggression, and ability to handle difficult major setups make him a strong top 10 candidate if the course does not punish him early. This is a better price than the outright market for a player who can contend without needing to win.
Xander Schauffele (+210) Check out the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Schauffele at +210 may be the strongest profile in the group from a U.S. Open consistency standpoint. He has made every U.S. Open cut in his career, owns seven top-10 finishes in nine starts, and has not finished worse than T14 in the championship.
He also finished T6 at Shinnecock in 2018, giving him direct course success that most players cannot match. Schauffele’s game is built for this type of market because he is rarely far off the pace in majors. The lack of recent wins is a concern for the outright market, but less of a problem when the target is only a top 10.
Tommy Fleetwood (+235) Check out the best odds at bet365 Sportsbook
Fleetwood is +235 and brings one of the strongest Shinnecock memories in the field. He finished runner-up here in 2018 after shooting a final-round 63, nearly chasing down Brooks Koepka in one of the most memorable U.S. Open Sundays of the last decade.
That course history matters because Fleetwood’s game fits the demands of Shinnecock. He is comfortable in wind, strong tee-to-green, and patient enough to grind when the scoring gets difficult. If he repeats anything close to his 2018 ball-striking performance, a top 10 is firmly in play.
Matt Fitzpatrick (+240) Check out the best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
Fitzpatrick is +240 and offers a strong mix of U.S. Open pedigree and course fit. He won the 2022 U.S. Open at Brookline, a demanding venue that rewarded accuracy, discipline, and short-game nerve, which are the same traits that should matter this week.
He also finished T12 at Shinnecock in 2018, just outside the top 10, so there is at least some course proof. Fitzpatrick’s ceiling may not be as explosive as McIlroy’s or Rahm’s, but his ability to keep the ball in play and avoid careless mistakes makes him a natural top 10 candidate at a fair price.
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