NHL MVP Odds: Nikita Kucherov Closing Fast on Nathan MacKinnon in Tight Hart Trophy Race
Nikita Kucherov and the Tampa Bay Lightning are the hottest team in hockey, and it's got Kucherov neck-and-neck in the NHL MVP race with Nathan MacKinnon. Can he steal the Hart Trophy award away after a torrid March pace? Peter Alexis analyzes the 2026 NHL MVP race with just a few weeks left.
Peter Alexis - March 31, 2026, 1:30 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadNHL MVP Odds: Can Nikita Kucherov Snatch Hart Trophy from Nathan MacKinnon After Red-Hot March Run?
With a little more than two weeks left in the NHL regular season, the Hart Trophy race has turned into one of the tightest award battles on the board. Nathan MacKinnon is still the slight favorite at -110, but Nikita Kucherov has surged to +115 after a massive closing stretch that has put real pressure on the market leader. Earlier in the season, MacKinnon’s edge was much larger. Now, with both stars producing at absurd levels and fewer than 10 games left for most teams, this is no longer comfortable chalk.
The backdrop makes it even more interesting. MacKinnon is trying to win his second Hart Trophy after finally breaking through last year, while Kucherov is also chasing Hart No. 2 after his first MVP season in 2018-19. Meanwhile, Connor McDavid, a three-time Hart winner, is still sitting on the fringes at +1100, but this race has increasingly become a two-man sprint between MacKinnon’s season-long dominance and Kucherov’s historic late charge.
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2026 NHL MVP Odds
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NHL MVP Odds Breakdown
Nathan MacKinnon (-110) Check out these best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
MacKinnon’s case is still incredibly strong. Colorado is 49-14-10 after Monday’s 9-2 win over Calgary, and MacKinnon delivered again with his league-leading 49th goal plus two assists in that game. He has been the offensive engine for one of the NHL’s best teams all year, and his combination of scoring, play-driving, and team success is exactly why he stayed in front of this race for so long.
What helps MacKinnon most is that his résumé never really dipped. He was the pace-setter for much of the season, remained near the top of the scoring race all year, and still sits on a top-tier team with real Presidents’ Trophy-level success. Even as Kucherov charges, voters may still lean toward the player who has been there from the opening months rather than the one who made up ground late.
Nikita Kucherov (+115) Check out these best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
Kucherov, though, has made this race almost a coin flip. He has been outrageous over the last month and a half, and the statistical run is historic. Since Nov. 22, he has posted 95 points in a 45-game span, the most by any NHL player in a 45-game stretch during a single season since Mario Lemieux in 1995-96. He also erased what was once a 22-point gap in the scoring race and took over the lead with 118 points in 64 games by March 22.
Tampa Bay’s team success has only strengthened that push. The Lightning are now 46-21-6 with 98 points and just moved to the top of the Atlantic Division while extending their point streak to eight games. Kucherov’s recent four-point outburst against Edmonton was exactly the kind of statement moment that can swing an award race late, and it is easy to see why sharp money may be leaning his way now.
Connor McDavid (+1100) Check out these best odds at Bet365 Sportsbook
McDavid is still doing McDavid things, which is why he cannot be ignored entirely. He is up to 124 points in 74 games after a goal-and-two-assist performance against Anaheim, and he recently became the third-fastest player in NHL history to 1,200 points while also reaching 400 career goals. In most seasons, that kind of production would keep him squarely in the middle of the Hart conversation.
But this year feels different. McDavid is still exceptional, but MacKinnon and Kucherov have been even more central to the award narrative, and both have cleaner momentum entering the final days. At +1100, he looks more like the elite outsider than a true co-favorite. Unless both leaders cool off significantly, the Hart Trophy is probably heading to either Colorado or Tampa.
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