INSIGHT

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Karoline Leavitt is preparing to leave the White House press secretary role at the end of August after roughly 19 months behind the podium, opening one of the highest-profile vacancies in the Trump administration. Scott Jennings, Anna Kelly and Natalie Harp have emerged among the leading prediction-market candidates as traders react to a rapidly changing succession race.

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Kalshi traders are pricing how low President Donald Trump's approval rating will fall before the end of 2026, with the market increasingly focused on whether the national polling average can break below 37%. With Trump's approval under pressure ahead of the midterm elections, how much further could the decline go before the calendar turns to 2027? Check out the latest Trump approval rating prediction-market odds and outlook.

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Wyoming Republicans vote Tuesday, August 18, to choose their nominee for governor, with Eric Barlow entering election night as the clear prediction-market favorite. Megan Degenfelder and Brent Bien remain notable challengers in the four-candidate race, but traders increasingly expect Barlow to emerge with the nomination.

Alaska voters head to the polls on Tuesday, August 18, for a wide-open gubernatorial primary featuring 17 candidates competing for four spots in November's general election. Former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson leads the prediction market among the three candidates shown, but Alaska's unusual top-four format leaves multiple candidates with a realistic opportunity to advance.

Florida Republicans vote Tuesday, August 18, to choose their nominee for governor, with prediction markets showing an enormous gap between Byron Donalds and James Fishback as voting concludes. Donalds enters primary day as the overwhelming market favorite, while Fishback's probability has collapsed after briefly attracting more attention earlier this year.

The 2026 college football season opens with Ohio State, Notre Dame, Texas, Oregon, Georgia and defending champion Indiana tightly packed at the top of the national championship market. With the 12-team College Football Playoff remaining in place, which contenders have the roster and schedule to survive the regular season and make a run to Las Vegas? Check out the latest college football national championship odds and outlook for the 2026 season.

The 2026 preseason AP Top 25 will be released at noon ET on Monday, August 17, with several programs sitting directly on the edge of the rankings. Which teams will earn one of the final spots as voters weigh 2025 results, returning talent and expectations for the new season? Check out the latest AP Top 25 prediction-market odds and outlook for August 17.

The 2026 AP Top 25 preseason poll will be released at noon ET on Monday, August 17, with Ohio State, Oregon and Notre Dame among the leading candidates to open the season at No. 1. Will the media follow the coaches and put the Buckeyes on top, or can another national contender take the first No. 1 ranking of the year? Check out the latest No. 1 AP Poll prediction-market odds and outlook for August 17.

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