2024 Kentucky Derby Odds, Betting Lines, Predictions: Kentucky Derby Odds Favoring Fierceness
2024 Kentucky Derby Odds, Betting Lines, Predictions: Kentucky Derby Odds Favoring Fierceness
The 150th running of the Kentucky Derby is set to start on the evening of Saturday, May 4th of 2024. Some of the best 3 year old colts in the world will run for the most prestigious race in America, and there certainly will be opportunity to make some money with a successful wager or two. Let's dive into the odds before getting to my 2024 Kentucky Derby pick.
For the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds, click here
2024 KENTUCKY DERBY MORNING LINE ODDS
| Horse | Morning Line Odds |
|---|---|
| Fierceness | 5-2 |
| Sierra Leone | 3-1 |
| Catching Freedom | 8-1 |
| Just a Touch | 10-1 |
| Forever Young | 10-1 |
| Dornoch | 20-1 |
| Mystik Dan | 20-1 |
| Just Steel | 20-1 |
| Honor Marie | 20-1 |
| Encino | 20-1 |
| Track Phantom | 20-1 |
| Stronghold | 20-1 |
| Resilience | 20-1 |
| Catalytic | 30-1 |
| T O Password | 30-1 |
| Endlessly | 30-1 |
| Domestic Product | 30-1 |
| West Saratoga | 50-1 |
| Grand Mo the First | 50-1 |
| Society Man | 50-1 |
2024 KENTUCKY BETTING DERBY PREVIEW - MAIN CONTENDERS
Fierceness
- Morning Line Odds: 5-2
- Trainer: Todd Pletcher
- Jockey: John Velazquez
The Kentucky Derby favorite this year has been absolutely tremendous in his victories on his way to Louisville. His debut win by 11 lengths caught a lot of eyes in his 2 year old campaign. His wins in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the Florida Derby also were very eye catching on the track and on the stopwatch. If that Fierceness shows up, he will be very tough to beat. However, he has thrown in two "clunker" races in both the Champagne Stakes as a 2 year old and the Holy Bull as a 3 year old. If that Fierceness shows up - I don't see him having a chance. Still, the good was as good as it gets.
Sierra Leone
- Morning Line Odds: 3-1
- Trainer: Chad Brown
- Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Who doesn't love a deep closer? Sierra Leone was an incredibly expensive 2.3 million dollar yearling purchase and since has been worth every penny and then some. Had a bit of a learning experience in the Remsen when he stormed past Dornoch in the lane and eventually goofed off, lost the lead, and ran an extremely disappointing second place. Since then, a small pair of blinkers have been added by trainer Chad Brown, and Sierra Leone has been rolling past horses like an absolute freight train. Any horse coming from way off the pace will have to overcome some traffic - especially in the Derby, but this son of Gun Runner has proven himself time and time again as one to be reckoned with down the stretch.
For the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds, click here
Catching Freedom
- Morning Line Odds: 8-1
- Trainer: Brad Cox
- Jockey: Flavien Prat
Flavien Prat will be taking this son of Constitution from off the pace here like he did in the Louisiana Derby. He wasn't better than Sierra Leone the race before in the Risen Star Stakes, but that was on a sloppy track. Perhaps with a fast track and a long Churchill Downs stretch drive, he can have a chance. Especially if he improves off his last effort in the Louisiana Derby, which came back pretty impressive on speed figures.
Just a Touch
- Morning Line Odds: 10-1
- Trainer: Brad Cox
- Jockey: Florent Geroux
I had the chance to see Just a Touch in person at the 100th running of the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland in early April. This is a lightly raced son of Justify who very much can improve off his last effort - only losing to Sierra Leone by a length and a half. I expect him to break sharply under jockey Florent Geroux, sit just behind the early speed, and make a move around the far turn - giving him a very live shot at the money.
Forever Young
- Morning Line Odds: 10-1
- Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi
- Jockey: Ryusei Sakai
Japanese racing has been all the rage these last couple of years thanks to Japan consistently showing up and winning big races across the globe (including a super impressive Breeders' Cup in 2021.) Still, the Kentucky Derby has been a tough one for Japan in recent years, including Derma Sotogake last year, who ran a lackluster 6th after not breaking well. Forever Young ran impressive times in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but I'm not sure that he's going to have it all go his way once the gates open and 19 other horses charge around him. He's never lost, and doesn't have many blemishes - it's just whether the competition he has faced has him ready for this caliber of a race.
For the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds, click here
KENTUCKY DERBY PICK - EARLY PREDICTION
Sierra Leone
Yes, people will pick apart his workouts. Yes, people will say that you can't trust a deep closer to overcome the traffic of the Derby. And yes, people will cry about his inside draw. But this horse has overcome more than any other colt in this race, and has proven that it doesn't matter how wide he has to go to get the job done, he's going to get it done. Also, I'm expecting this race to shape up well for Sierra Leone and the closers. With many horses being forwardly placed in their races leading up to this, I'd guess that the same will be true in Derby 150. He's done very little wrong, and I'm hoping he is a solid second choice at least at the betting windows. If we can get around 7-2 when the gates open, I'll be a happy camper. Expect him to be rolling late down the stretch. Don't give up on him until the race is over!
KENTUCKY DERBY FAQS
WHEN IS THE KENTUCKY DERBY?
The Kentucky Derby is traditionally on the first Saturday in May, and this year is no different. The 2024 Kentucky Derby is scheduled to take place on Saturday, May 4, 2024.
- Date: Saturday, May 4, 2024
WHAT TIME IS THE KENTUCKY DERBY?
The answer to this one is a little more complicated than you'd think. What time is the 2024 Kentucky Derby? Coverage starts early in the afternoon, but the official post time for the 2024 Kentucky Derby is 6:57 pm ET.
- Time: 6:57 pm ET
WHERE IS THE KENTUCKY DERBY?
The one constant about the Kentucky Derby year in and year out is where it's held. The 2024 Kentucky Derby will be run at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Churchill Downs has become synonymous with the Kentucky Derby. It opened in 1875.
- Location: Churchill Downs (Louisville, Kentucky)
WHO WON THE 2023 KENTUCKY DERBY?
The 2023 Kentucky Derby was like a breath of fresh air for the horse racing industry. Despite Kentucky Derby favorite Forte scratching before the race, the race itself was like a return to normalcy, with Javier Castellano and No. 8 Mage winning the 149th running of the Kentucky Derby. Mage finished just behind Forte in the Florida Derby, and somehow went unnoticed at the betting windows - winning at odds of 15-1.
- 2023 Kentucky Derby Winner: Mage (15-1)
WHAT HORSE IS FAVORED TO WIN THE KENTUCKY DERBY?
The official Kentucky Derby morning line puts the #17 horse Fierceness as the 5-2 2024 Kentucky Derby Favorite. That doesn't mean that you'll necessarily get 5-2 once the race begins, though!
- 2024 Kentucky Derby Favorite: Fierceness (5-2)
HOW DO ODDS WORK IN THE KENTUCKY DERBY?
Kentucky Derby odds work much like odds for any other sporting event, but there is one major difference. Like all other odds, if your horse goes off at 6-1 and wins, you win six times your original stake. Where Kentucky Derby odds differ, as do all horse racing odds in the United States, is that they aren't fixed odds. That is to say that if you get a horse at 10-1 but it goes off at 5-1, then your ticket is good for those 5-1 odds they had at the time of the race, not the 10-1 odds you originally bet. The inverse can be true too! If you bet on a horse at 3-1 and it wins at odds of 5-1, your ticket is good for 5-1 instead!
For the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds, click here