Latest Premier League Winner Odds as Man City Overtakes Arsenal in Final Weeks
Man City took down Arsenal in a crucial tiebreaking match on Sunday, and now have the chance to tie the Premier League standings on Wednesday afternoon. Can Erling Haaland and Man City steal glory away from Arsenal once again? Peter Alexis analyzes the EPL Title race with just a few weeks remaining.
Peter Alexis - April 22, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
4 Minute ReadPremier League Winner Odds: Has Arsenal Choked Away EPL Title for Fourth Straight Year as Man City Surges Past?
After Sunday’s 2-1 home win over Arsenal, powered by Erling Haaland’s second-half winner, City moved to -140 to win the Premier League while Arsenal drifted to +125, a stunning reversal for a race the Gunners had controlled for most of the season and once held at around -900 in the market. Arsenal still sits top on 70 points from 33 matches, but City is on 67 from 32, and a win Wednesday at relegation-bound Burnley would pull Pep Guardiola’s side level on points with a game in hand already converted.
That is why the pressure now feels overwhelmingly tilted toward Arsenal. City has won four of the last five Premier League titles and six of the last eight, while Arsenal is staring at the possibility of another agonizing near miss after finishing runner-up in each of the last three seasons. The recent trend is brutal for Mikel Arteta’s side too, with Arsenal having lost four of its last six in all competitions and gone more than a month without a league win, while City has surged at exactly the right time.
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Premier League Winner Odds
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Premier League Winner Odds Breakdown
Manchester City (-140) Check out the best odds with Caesars Sportsbook
City’s case is simple now: they look like the team built for this exact moment. Sunday’s win over Arsenal was not just a six-pointer, it was a psychological blow that reminded everyone how often Guardiola’s side closes these races better than anyone else. Haaland delivered the decisive goal in the second half, Rodri controlled the midfield before his injury issue, and City now enters Wednesday at Burnley with a clear chance to take full control of the title picture. Guardiola called the result “hope,” but in market terms it looked a lot more like a transfer of power.
The schedule favors them too. City has six matches left: Burnley, Everton, Brentford, Crystal Palace, Bournemouth, and Aston Villa. Burnley is one of the weakest teams in the league, and City is expected to handle that trip. If they do, the standings effectively reset at 70 points apiece with five matches left, except City would be the side with momentum, pedigree, and the recent head-to-head win. That is why the odds have moved so sharply. From here, unless City drops unexpected points, Arsenal may need perfection just to keep the race alive.
Arsenal (+125) Check out the best odds with BetMGM Sportsbook
Arsenal’s position is still salvageable, but it is suddenly fragile. The Gunners remain top of the table, yet that lead has become deceptive because they have played one more match than City. More concerning is the form. Reuters noted that Arsenal opened the season with only three defeats in their first 49 matches in all competitions, but they have now lost four of their last six, and the strain of leading the race for so long appears to be showing. This is exactly the kind of late wobble that has haunted them before.
The remaining run-in is not impossible, but it leaves almost no margin for error: Newcastle, Fulham, West Ham, Burnley, and Crystal Palace. Arsenal is favored against Newcastle this weekend, but that is hardly a free square, and every dropped point now becomes magnified because City’s schedule is also manageable. The cruelest part for Arsenal is that they have spent most of the year looking like champions in waiting, only to arrive at the finish line again with the burden of history hanging over them. If they do not win out, the familiar narrative will only grow louder.
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