Kylian Mbappe Golden Boot Odds: Can Mbappe Chase Down Messi in Second Match Against Iraq on Tuesday?
Kylian Mbappe scored twice in France’s opening win over Senegal and is already tied with Lionel Messi at the top of the Golden Boot oddsboard. Can Mbappe close the goal gap against Iraq on Monday, or is the market already too short after one match? Here is a look at Mbappe’s Golden Boot odds and France vs. Iraq scoring props.
Peter Alexis - June 22, 2026, 1:30 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadWill Mbappe Continue Run of Dominance Against Iraq in Quest for Repeat Golden Boot Award?
Kylian Mbappe is +300 to win the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot after scoring twice in France’s 3-1 win over Senegal. He is tied with Messi in the market despite sitting one goal behind him, and that pricing says a lot about how strongly traders view France’s tournament path.
France faces Iraq on Monday, June 22, as a massive -1100 favorite. Mbappe is +220 to score first, -220 to score anytime, +190 to score two or more goals, and +850 to record a hat trick. Those are extremely short scoring prices for a World Cup match, but France’s matchup and team outlook explain why the market is comfortable making him expensive.
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Mbappe’s opener against Senegal did more than add two goals to his total. He became France’s all-time leading scorer, passed Olivier Giroud, and looked more dangerous as the match stretched out. France did not play its cleanest attacking match for the full 90 minutes, but Mbappe still scored in the 66th minute and again in stoppage time. That is the problem for every team in this group: France can have uneven stretches and Mbappe can still walk away with a brace.
Iraq is the kind of Matchday 2 opponent that can tilt the Golden Boot race. Iraq lost 4-1 to Norway and already allowed two goals to Haaland, then has to turn around and deal with Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele, Bradley Barcola, and the rest of France’s attacking depth. Iraq has said it will not sit back just to avoid damage, which could make the game more open than a normal underdog setup. That is good for France and even better for Mbappe’s two-goal and hat-trick prices.
The Golden Boot is partly a France bet. Mbappe already won this award in 2022, and France now sits as the World Cup favorite at +450, ahead of Spain. If France reaches the semifinals or final, Mbappe should have more match volume than most of the players chasing him. That is why he is tied with Messi at +300 even though Messi has one extra goal. The market is paying for goals already scored, but it is also paying for France’s expected runway.
Mbappe at +300 is still the cleanest favorite profile because France can give him the most chances deep into July. Messi has the current lead, but Mbappe has the better team price, the better Matchday 2 matchup, and a realistic chance to pull level or move ahead against Iraq. The anytime price at -220 is too rich for most bettors, so the sharper Monday prop is two or more goals at +190 if the expectation is another France rout.
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