Oscars Best Picture Nomination Odds: Which Films Will be Nominated for Best Picture at 98th Academy Awards?
The coveted Oscar's Best Picture Award is heavily favored by One Battle After Another, but there will be up to 10 nominations announced on Thursday, January 22nd. Who will join Leonardo DiCaprio's film atop the nomination list? Let's take a look at this Oscars Best Picture Nomination Odds ahead of Thursday's announcement.
Peter Alexis - January 22, 2026, 1:30 AM EST
4 Minute ReadOscars Best Picture Nomination Odds: Who Will Join Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another in Best Picture Nominations?
The road to the 98th Academy Awards reaches its biggest checkpoint this week, as Oscar nominations are set to be announced Thursday morning, January 22 at 8:30 a.m. ET on Good Morning America. Up to 10 films can be nominated for Best Picture, and while a few slots appear close to locked in, the final positions remain highly competitive.
Prediction markets like Kalshi have become a popular way to measure awards-season sentiment, aggregating expectations from traders who are tracking critics groups, guild nominations, festival buzz, and late momentum. The implied probabilities below represent each film’s current chance of landing a Best Picture nomination, not of winning the award itself.
Bet on Oscars Best Picture Odds with Kalshi Here
Film Nomination Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
Frankenstein | 99% |
One Battle After Another | 99% |
Marty Supreme | 99% |
Sinners | 99% |
Hamnet | 99% |
Sentimental Value | 98% |
Bugonia | 90% |
The Secret Agent | 82% |
Train Dreams | 78% |
It Was Just an Accident | 62% |
F1 Movie | 29% |
Weapons | 16% |
Blue Moon | 10% |
Sirat | 9% |
Wicked: For Good | 7% |
Oscars Best Picture Odds From Kalshi
Frankenstein - 99% Chance Bet on Oscars Best Picture Odds with Kalshi Here
Frankenstein is the clear favorite to receive a Best Picture nomination and is widely considered one of the safest locks of the entire awards season. Directed by Guillermo del Toro and starring Oscar Isaac, the gothic adaptation has been praised for its production design, emotional depth, and faithful yet modern take on the classic story. With strong showings from critics groups and major awards precursors, anything short of a nomination would be a shock.
Marty Supreme – 99% Chance Bet on Oscars Best Picture Odds with Kalshi Here
Marty Supreme is viewed as an absolute lock for a Best Picture nomination. The film has dominated critics groups throughout the fall and is expected to show strength across multiple categories, including acting and screenplay. Its blend of prestige storytelling and emotional resonance has positioned it as one of the central pillars of this year’s Oscar race, making a nomination all but guaranteed.
One Battle After Another – 99% Chance Bet on Oscars Best Picture Odds with Kalshi Here
One Battle After Another has emerged as one of the Academy’s favorite large scale films of the year. The historical epic combines sweeping scope with intimate character work, a formula that traditionally performs extremely well with voters. With strong technical craftsmanship and awards traction across guilds, it is considered a near certainty to land in the Best Picture lineup.
Hamnet – 99% Chance Bet on Oscars Best Picture Odds with Kalshi Here
Hamnet has been embraced as a quintessential Oscar film, blending literary prestige with emotional storytelling. The adaptation has drawn praise for its performances, score, and visual tone, and it has consistently appeared near the top of Best Picture prediction lists. At 99%, the market views it as one of the safest nominations of the year.
Sinners – 99% Chance Bet on Oscars Best Picture Odds with Kalshi Here
Sinners has surged into the top tier of awards contenders thanks to its powerful themes and standout ensemble cast. The film has generated significant buzz for its direction and writing, and its strong presence in early awards indicators has solidified its status as a lock. A Best Picture nomination appears virtually inevitable given its industry support.
Sentimental value - 98% Chance Bet on Oscars Best Picture Odds with Kalshi Here
Sentimental Value has emerged as one of the strongest international contenders of the year. The Norwegian drama has earned glowing reviews and consistent awards traction, combining intimate storytelling with broad emotional appeal. Its near identical odds to Frankenstein reflect just how secure its position appears heading into nomination morning.
Bugonia - 90% Chance Bet on Oscars Best Picture Odds with Kalshi Here
Bugonia continues the awards-season run of director Yorgos Lanthimos, delivering another idiosyncratic film that critics have embraced. While its tone may not appeal to every voter, its originality and craft have kept it firmly in the Best Picture conversation. At nearly 90%, it is viewed as a strong favorite to make the final lineup.
The Secret Agent - 82% Chance Bet on Oscars Best Picture Odds with Kalshi Here
The Secret Agent has built momentum through its screenplay and international acclaim. The espionage thriller has shown up consistently in critics predictions and industry forecasts, suggesting it has enough broad support to land a Best Picture nod even in a crowded field.
Train Dreams - 78% Chance Bet on Oscars Best Picture Odds with Kalshi Here
Train Dreams has drawn significant praise for its cinematography and restrained performances. Based on the acclaimed novella, the film’s quiet tone and visual storytelling have resonated with critics, placing it just inside the likely nomination range with a strong chance to secure one of the final slots.
It was Just an Accident - 62% Chance Bet on Oscars Best Picture Odds with Kalshi Here
Once viewed as a near lock, It Was Just an Accident has slipped slightly as newer contenders gained steam. Still, its critical respect and international support keep it firmly alive. At over 60%, it remains one of the most interesting bubble films in the race.
F1 Movie - 29% Chance Bet on Oscars Best Picture Odds with Kalshi Here
F1 sits well outside the projected locks but has gained some traction due to its technical achievements and mainstream appeal. Racing films rarely break into Best Picture without overwhelming momentum, but a late surge in below the line categories could keep it relevant as a longshot.
Weapons - 16% Chance Bet on Oscars Best Picture Odds with Kalshi Here
Weapons has impressed in specific technical and storytelling areas but lacks the broad awards support needed to feel safe. Its nomination chances likely depend on surprise strength in screenplay or ensemble recognition pushing it into the final ten.
Blue Moon - 10% Chance Bet on Oscars Best Picture Odds with Kalshi Here
Blue Moon has drawn attention for its performances and direction, particularly from critics groups. However, its lower odds suggest it is more of an outside contender, needing strong last minute support to break into the Best Picture lineup.
Sirat - 9% Chance Bet on Oscars Best Picture Odds with Kalshi Here
Sirāt has been well received internationally and remains in the conversation largely due to its global acclaim. While a nomination is possible, its odds reflect the difficulty international films face when competing against a deep slate of English language contenders.
Wicked: For Good - 7% Chance Bet on Oscars Best Picture Odds with Kalshi Here
Wicked: For Good is expected to perform well in technical and music categories, but Best Picture recognition appears unlikely. Musicals need overwhelming support to break through in this category, and at under 10%, this would qualify as a true surprise nomination.
More of oddschecker
