Oscars Best Director Nomination Odds: Who Will be Nominated for Best Director at 98th Academy Awards?
The Oscar's Best Director Award is led heavily by Paul Thomas Anderson for his work on One Battle After Another, but there will be 4 other films nominated for the award on Thursday morning, January 22nd. Who will join the critically acclaimed film atop the nomination list? Let's take a look at this Oscars Best Director Nomination Odds ahead of Thursday's announcement.
Peter Alexis - January 22, 2026, 2:00 AM EST
5 Minute ReadOscars Best Director Nomination Odds: Who Will Join Paul Thomas Anderson in Best Director Race?
Below is a Best Director Oscar nomination odds breakdown based on the current Kalshi market. As with Best Picture, up to five directors will ultimately be nominated, making this one of the most competitive and prestige driven categories on the ballot.
The nominations will be announced Thursday, January 22 at 8:30 a.m. ET on Good Morning America, and Best Director often tracks closely with Best Picture strength, though there are frequent surprises when the Directors Branch flexes its independence. International recognition and career value matter heavily here, which is why this market has seen sharp late movement over the past month.
Bet on Oscars Best Director Nomination Odds with Kalshi Here
Director Nomination Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) | 99% |
Ryan Coogler (Sinners) | 97% |
Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) | 79% |
Chloe Zhao (Hamnet) | 73% |
Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme | 70% |
Guillermo Del Toro (Frankenstein) | 41% |
Jafar Panahi (It Was Just An Accident) | 40% |
Kleber Mendonca Filho (The Secret Agent) | 14% |
Oscars Best Director Nomination Odds From Kalshi
Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another - 99% Chance Bet on Oscars Best Director Nomination Odds with Kalshi Here
Paul Thomas Anderson is a virtual lock. One Battle After Another is one of the most critically respected films of the year, and Anderson is one of the most consistently nominated directors of his generation. With strong guild support and Best Picture momentum, it would be a shock if his name were missing on nomination morning.
Ryan Coogler – Sinners - 97% Chance Bet on Oscars Best Director Nomination Odds with Kalshi Here
Ryan Coogler’s odds reflect overwhelming confidence. Sinners has surged late with critics and industry voters, and Coogler’s direction has been singled out as a driving force behind the film’s emotional and technical impact. This would mark another major Oscar milestone in an already decorated career.
Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value - 79% Chance Bet on Oscars Best Director Nomination Odds with Kalshi Here
Joachim Trier has been one of the biggest risers in the market. Sentimental Value has gained significant late season momentum, particularly with international voters and critics groups. The Directors Branch has historically embraced auteurs like Trier, and his sharp odds jump suggests growing confidence in a nomination.
Chloé Zhao – Hamnet - 75% Chance Bet on Oscars Best Director Nomination Odds with Kalshi Here
Chloé Zhao remains in strong position despite a slight dip. Hamnet has been a steady awards player, and Zhao’s previous Best Director win gives her added credibility with voters. While not a lock, her blend of prestige, prior Oscar success, and strong film backing keeps her firmly in the top tier.
Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme - 71% Chance Bet on Oscars Best Director Nomination Odds with Kalshi Here
Josh Safdie’s odds have climbed sharply as Marty Supreme continues to solidify itself as a major Best Picture contender. Known for his kinetic and distinctive style, Safdie could benefit from the Directors Branch rewarding bold filmmaking choices. He sits squarely on the nomination bubble but trending the right way.
Guillermo del Toro – Frankenstein - 41% Chance Bet on Oscars Best Director Nomination Odds with Kalshi Here
Guillermo del Toro remains very much in the conversation, but Frankenstein appears to be walking a fine line between admiration and divisiveness. The scale and ambition are undeniable, but the odds suggest uncertainty about whether it lands in the final five.
Jafar Panahi – It Was Just an Accident - 40% Chance Bet on Oscars Best Director Nomination Odds with Kalshi Here
Jafar Panahi represents the kind of international wildcard the Directors Branch sometimes elevates. His odds have slipped recently, but his reputation and the film’s political weight still give him a realistic path if voters prioritize artistic statement over awards momentum.
Kleber Mendonça Filho – The Secret Agent - 14% Chance Bet on Oscars Best Director Nomination Odds with Kalshi Here
Kleber Mendonça Filho sits on the longshot end of the board. While The Secret Agent has its supporters, it appears more likely to be crowded out by stronger Best Picture aligned directors unless a surprise late surge materializes.
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