2026 Traitors US Season 4 Odds: Rob Rausch Dominates as Faithful Chances Collapse
The Traitors US Season 4 odds have updated and after nine episodes Rob Rausch leads at 88%, Eric faltered to 7% and Mark collapses to 4%. Check out how the odds stack up before the next episode releases.
Jack Borovitz - February 14, 2026, 3:00 PM EST
6 Minute Read2026 Traitors US Season 4 Odds: Rob Rausch Dominates as Faithful Chances Collapse
The turret belongs to Rob Rausch. Nine episodes into The Traitors Season 4, the Love Island USA star has executed one of the most ruthless gameplay runs in franchise history. Three Traitors eliminated, two by his own hand. A fresh recruit secured. Zero suspicion attached. The betting markets have responded with overwhelming confidence, pushing Rausch to an 88% chance to claim the $250,000 prize.
Two weeks ago, this race looked like a three-horse competition. Maura Higgins commanded 80% odds, Kristen Kish surged to 48%, and the Faithful seemed positioned to dismantle the remaining Traitors. That narrative has disintegrated. The Irish presenter has crashed to 5%. The Top Chef host barely registers at under 1%. Even Mark Ballas, who climbed to 27% last week, has fallen to 4%.
Rob's recruited partner Eric Nam sits at 7% despite joining the Traitors just one episode ago. With Episode 10 scheduled for February 19 and the finale approaching on February 26, the betting window narrows as the Faithful scramble to identify who's actually in the turret while Rob maintains complete control of the castle.
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Latest The Traitors US Season 4 Odds From Kalshi
Contestant | Chance |
|---|---|
Rob Rausch | 88% |
Eric Nam | 7% |
Mark Ballas | 4% |
Maura Higgins | 4% |
Kristen Kish | 2% |
Rob Rausch – 88% Chance
The overwhelming favorite and puppet master of Season 4. Rausch has systematically dismantled his competition through surgical gameplay that any reality TV strategist would respect. He betrayed Lisa Rinna in Episode 7, orchestrated Candiace Dillard Bassett's banishment in Episode 8, then recruited Eric Nam rather than face isolation in the turret. When Episode 9 ended, Kristen Kish warned Mark and Rob that if she's murdered next, "just look at Eric." Rob played along perfectly, nodding and acting concerned while standing right there as the Traitor Kristen's actually trying to expose. His 26-point surge from 62% to 88% reflects a player who has controlled every major decision for three consecutive episodes while remaining completely above suspicion among the remaining Faithfuls. At 88%, he represents the safest bet in the competition.
Eric Nam – 7% Chance
The newest Traitor, recruited in Episode 9 after Rob presented him with the ultimate choice: join or die. The K-pop singer accepted the robe and immediately participated in murdering Dorinda Medley, but his inexperience showed during the mission and Round Table. Kristen clocked his shift in energy almost instantly, telling Rob and Mark she doesn't trust Eric and suspects he's recently turned. His 2-point drop to 7% reflects the dangerous position of a player who must execute Traitor gameplay while still learning the mechanics, all while one of the sharpest Faithfuls has him directly in her sights. If he survives the Episode 10 jack-in-the-box murder reveal, he faces an uphill battle convincing the remaining players he's innocent.
Mark Ballas – 4% Chance
The quiet survivor making steady progress. The Dancing with the Stars champion has avoided major drama while building credibility as a Faithful, but his 23-point drop from 27% to 4% shows the market sees him as collateral damage in Rob's endgame strategy. Episode 9 ended with four players facing potential murder via jack-in-the-box, and if Kristen or Natalie survive, they'll likely target the perceived alliance between Johnny, Tara, and anyone who's defended them. Mark's positioned in the middle, trusted by Rob but lacking the aggressive gameplay needed to shift votes at this stage. At 4%, he needs multiple Faithfuls to eliminate each other before he becomes a serious threat.
Maura Higgins – 4% Chance
The market reversal nobody saw coming. Maura's 76-point crash from 80% to 4% represents one of the most dramatic collapses in Traitors betting history. The Love Island UK presenter commanded not long ago as the runaway favorite, demonstrating exceptional social awareness and avoiding suspicion at every Round Table. That narrative has completely shattered. Her steady gameplay suggests she hasn't made critical mistakes, but she also hasn't made the moves necessary to position herself for the endgame. With two Traitors controlling the murders and the Faithful unable to identify them, passive gameplay becomes a death sentence. At 5%, she needs either a miracle banishment of both Traitors or for chaos to completely reshape the final dynamics.
Kristen Kish – 2% Chance
The sharpest mind in the castle, now facing elimination. Kristen's 46-point drop from 48% to 2% reflects a player who became too dangerous too quickly. She publicly identified Colton Underwood's suspicious behavior early. She's questioned Tara's proximity to Johnny. And most critically, she ended Episode 9 by warning Mark and Rob about Eric, stating directly that if she's murdered, they should suspect the K-pop singer. The betting markets understand what viewers see: Kristen has painted a massive target on herself by being correct about player behavior while lacking the social capital to execute banishments. Episode 9 ended with her in the dungeon alongside Natalie, Tara, and Johnny, facing a jack-in-the-box murder where one of the four receives a Traitor card. If she survives, she has the read necessary to expose Eric and potentially Rob, but at 2%, the market believes she's either the Episode 10 murder or facing imminent banishment.
With three Round Tables remaining and the finale scheduled for February 26, Rob's 88% odds reflect a player who has systematically eliminated every threat while maintaining complete trust from the remaining Faithfuls. The Faithful have successfully banished only one Traitor in the last four episodes, and that was only because Rob turned on his own allies. The betting markets believe he's already won.
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