Grammy Song of the Year Odds: Can Anyone Top "Golden" Ahead of 68th Grammy Awards

The Grammy Awards air tonight, February 1, and one of the most closely watched races on the board is Best New Artist. This category often blends cultural momentum with long-term industry belief, and betting markets tend to sharpen late as voters lock in their ballots. This year, Kalshi pricing shows a clear separation between the favorite and the field, with one artist pulling away decisively as the ceremony arrives.

That favorite is Olivia Dean, whose odds have continued to firm throughout the nomination cycle. While challengers have made noise in their respective lanes, the market suggests voters see this race less as a toss-up and more as a confirmation of a breakout year that resonated globally. Still, Best New Artist has produced surprises before, which keeps some intrigue alive heading into tonight.

Bet on Grammy Best New Artist Odds with Kalshi Here

Grammy Best New Artist Odds From Kalshi

Olivia Dean - 80% Chance

Olivia Dean enters Grammy night as the overwhelming favorite, sitting above an 80% implied probability on Kalshi. Her rise has been powered by the success of her hit single “Man I Need,” which helped cement her as one of the most polished and widely embraced new voices in pop and soul.

Dean’s appeal stretches well beyond the UK, and that global reach matters in a category that often rewards artists who feel sustainable rather than momentary. At this point, the odds suggest it would take a significant upset for her not to walk away with the trophy.

Leon Thomas - 20% Chance

Leon Thomas stands as the clear second choice, though still a distant one. Originally known to many as Andre from Victorious, Thomas has successfully rewritten his narrative as a serious singer-songwriter. His track “Mutt” climbed R&B charts throughout the past year and earned him industry credibility beyond nostalgia.

While his story is compelling and his growth undeniable, the market reflects that voters likely see his nomination as a milestone rather than a winning moment, especially against Dean’s momentum.

Sombr - 7% Chance

Rounding out the realistic contenders is sombr, whose odds sit near 7%. Songs like “Back to Friends” and “Undressed” gained real traction in 2025 and positioned him as a rising alternative voice with a dedicated following. The challenge is scale.

While sombr broke through in meaningful ways, his impact hasn’t matched the global visibility and crossover appeal that Olivia Dean brought to this race. Kalshi’s numbers reflect respect for his year, but not belief in a late-stage upset.

More of oddschecker

• Looking for some politics odds? Check it out here
• Read the latest insights and odds updates from our oddschecker team
• Interested in sports betting picks? See all sports from our team of experts