Updated 2026 Oscar Best Picture Odds: One Battle After Another Leads the Pack as Hollywood's Biggest Night Arrives
The Oscars are almost here, and you can bet on which films, directors, actors, and actresses you think is going to win on Kalshi. Jack Borovitz breaks down the Kalshi odds for which film from this year will win Best Picture.
Jack Borovitz - March 15, 2026, 6:10 PM EDT
6 Minute ReadUpdated 2026 Oscar Best Picture Odds: One Battle After Another Leads the Pack as Hollywood's Biggest Night Arrives
The ceremony is tonight, and over $16.5 million traded on Kalshi says this race has been settled for weeks. Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another won at Critics Choice, Golden Globe, DGA, BAFTA, and PGA. The PGA winner has matched the Best Picture Oscar five years running. Ryan Coogler's Sinners made history with a record 16 nominations and won the SAG Ensemble prize, but at 78¢ for Yes shares, Anderson's revolutionary thriller sits as the consensus pick heading into the Dolby Theatre. Conan O'Brien hosts at 7pm ET on ABC, and this is your last window to get positioned before the market resolves.
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Latest Best Picture Odds From Kalshi
Contestant | Chance |
|---|---|
One Battle After Another | 78% |
Sinners | 20% |
Hamnet | 3% |
One Battle After Another: 78% Chance
The runaway favorite. PTA's black comedy action-thriller starring Leonardo DiCaprio won at Critics Choice, Golden Globe (Comedy/Musical), DGA, BAFTA, and PGA on its way to 13 Oscar nominations. The DGA winner has matched the Best Director Oscar five consecutive years, and the PGA winner has matched Best Picture five straight. That kind of double lock makes 78¢ Yes shares feel like the safest money in the building. DiCaprio plays a burned-out ex-revolutionary forced back into the fight when Sean Penn's Col. Lockjaw resurfaces after 16 years, and critics called it Anderson's most entertaining film yet at 94% on Rotten Tomatoes. Shot on VistaVision with Jonny Greenwood's score earning near-universal praise, this is the Anderson film that finally converts a career of near-misses into Best Picture gold. If you're fading him after a complete precursor sweep, No shares at 23¢ are your last stand.
Sinners: 20% Chance
The historic underdog with a case that won't die quietly. Coogler's vampire blues thriller set in 1932 Mississippi shattered the all-time Oscar nominations record with 16 nods, two more than All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land. Michael B. Jordan plays twin brothers opening a juke joint only to face vampires and KKK terror in one blood-soaked night, and the film became the highest-grossing original movie domestically in 15 years. Sinners won the SAG Ensemble prize (making Coogler the first director to win that award twice), took home BAFTA Original Screenplay, and drew the loudest applause at the nominees luncheon. The upset case: Picture and Director have split before, and if voters reward the record-breaking nomination haul alongside Coogler's cultural moment, 20¢ Yes shares carry real value. At 81¢ No, you're banking on Anderson's momentum being too strong to overcome.
Hamnet: 3% Chance
The tearjerker running on Jessie Buckley's complete awards-season dominance. Chloé Zhao's adaptation of Maggie O'Farrell's novel earned eight nominations and won the Golden Globe for Best Picture (Drama), which would normally signal serious contender status. Buckley has swept Best Actress across BAFTA, Golden Globe, SAG, and Critics Choice for her devastating turn as Shakespeare's grieving wife Agnes. At 3¢ Yes, the market has written Hamnet off as an acting awards player that won't break through in the Best Picture race. If you think emotional devastation and a Buckley-led voter groundswell can topple the Anderson freight train, this is a lottery ticket.
Voting closed weeks ago, and Anderson has won everything there is to win on the precursor circuit. Coogler's record-breaking nomination haul keeps Sinners in the conversation. Buckley's performance keeps Hamnet alive in theory. The envelopes get opened tonight. Lock in before the market resolves.
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