Next James Bond Odds: Jack Lowden Surges Up Leaderboard As Rumors Swirl About Potential Job Offering
The race to become the next James Bond has a new favorite, with Jack Lowden suddenly moving ahead of Callum Turner and Aaron Taylor-Johnson on Kalshi. Is the Slow Horses star genuinely closing in on 007, or has another unconfirmed casting rumor temporarily reshaped one of entertainment’s most volatile prediction markets?
Peter Alexis - August 13, 2026, 9:17 AM EDT
4 Minute ReadNext James Bond Odds: Has Jack Lowden Been Selected Behind Closed Doors?
Jack Lowden now leads Kalshi’s next James Bond market at 31%, narrowly ahead of longtime favorite Callum Turner at 27%, while Aaron Taylor-Johnson sits third at 14%. More than $1.63 million has traded on the market, and the sudden change at the top comes just as the actual casting process is entering a critical stage.
Amazon MGM has confirmed that the search for Daniel Craig’s replacement is underway, with Denis Villeneuve directing, Amy Pascal and David Heyman producing and Peaky Blinders creator Steven Knight writing the film. Screen tests are taking place this month, and an announcement is expected before the end of 2026, making the recent market movement much more meaningful than the years of speculation that preceded the official search.
Think You Know Who Will be the Next James Bond? Bet on it with Kalshi Here
Next James Bond Odds
Next James Bond Odds: Who will take over for Daniel Craig
Jack Lowden (31%) Bet on the Next James Bond with Kalshi Here
Lowden essentially came out of nowhere to take over the market after Richard Osman dropped what initially sounded like a major piece of inside information. Osman said on The Rest Is Entertainment that somebody had told him “for definite” who the next Bond was and that the name he heard was Lowden. He then softened the claim, acknowledging that he has been told similar things before and clarifying that Lowden is being “strongly considered” rather than definitely having the role.
The timing strongly suggests that rumor helped drive Lowden’s rapid Kalshi move. He fits the profile without already feeling like an overwhelming movie star, and his most recognizable role is particularly relevant. Lowden plays MI5 agent River Cartwright in Slow Horses, while his film résumé includes Dunkirk, Mary Queen of Scots and Fighting with My Family. He also has major stage experience and has received Emmy and Golden Globe recognition for Slow Horses.
There is also something stylistically attractive about Lowden for Villeneuve. He has already demonstrated that he can play intelligence work without turning the character into an invincible action hero, and he has enough recognition to headline a franchise without carrying the baggage of a longtime A-list superstar. That does not prove the Osman information is accurate, but it makes Lowden far more than a random name generated by betting markets.
Callum Turner (27%) Bet on the Next James Bond with Kalshi Here
Turner had controlled this market for much of 2026 before Lowden’s sudden rise. The 36-year-old Londoner has built a strong leading-man résumé through Masters of the Air, the Fantastic Beasts films and George Clooney’s The Boys in the Boat, while recently expanding into more mainstream starring roles. Clooney has even publicly said Turner would make a strong Bond.
The problem is that there has never been much concrete evidence behind Turner’s favorite status. Turner said in June that he genuinely knew nothing about the casting process despite constantly being asked whether he had landed the role. His market position has therefore largely been built around industry speculation, physical fit and the belief that he matches what a modern Bond casting could look like.
That does not suddenly make 27% a bad number. Lowden’s surge is tied heavily to one piece of secondhand information, while Turner remains firmly among the names being discussed as screen testing intensifies. The market has shifted from treating Turner as the obvious frontrunner to essentially pricing Lowden and Turner as co-favorites.
Aaron Taylor-Johnson (14%) Bet on the Next James Bond with Kalshi Here
Taylor-Johnson has been attached to Bond rumors longer than either Lowden or Turner. Reports going back years claimed he had impressed during meetings or screen tests and was even offered the role, but none ultimately produced an official announcement. The current Amazon-led casting process also began well after many of those stories circulated, reducing the value of older speculation.
His résumé still makes the appeal obvious. Taylor-Johnson broke through in Kick-Ass, won a Golden Globe for Nocturnal Animals and has accumulated major action credits through Avengers: Age of Ultron, Tenet, Bullet Train, The Fall Guy and Kraven the Hunter. Of the three market leaders, he has by far the most conventional blockbuster action background.
The 14% probability instead reflects how many times the Taylor-Johnson Bond story has appeared to approach the finish line without actually getting there. He remains credible, but the market has increasingly moved toward actors whose momentum is connected to the current Villeneuve-led search rather than the previous era of Bond speculation.
Next James Bond Betting Outlook
Lowden absolutely could be the guy. Osman’s comments are the most interesting new development because they arrived while auditions are actually happening, and the market reacted immediately. Lowden also checks enough boxes that the rumor makes sense rather than feeling like pure celebrity gossip.
Calling it a genuine leak would still be too aggressive. Osman himself backed away from saying Lowden definitely has the role, Amazon MGM continues to say the casting process is ongoing, and multiple candidates remain in contention.
The 31% price therefore looks more like justified frontrunner status than confirmation. Lowden has moved from an outsider to the most interesting name in the market, but Turner at 27% remains extremely live while the August screen tests continue. The bigger takeaway is that the Bond race now appears much closer to becoming real, and the next credible casting report could move these probabilities dramatically again.
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