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2020 US Presidential Election Odds: Betting History Suggests Donald Trump Will Beat Joe Biden

The latest from the betting markets on the 2020 US Election. Does betting history suggest Trump has the edge?
Sam Eaton
Thu, August 13, 10:12 AM

2020 US Presidential Election Odds

It’s been a big week in the 2020 Election race, with Joe Biden appointing Kamala Harris as his running mate. Despite Joe Biden dominating the political headlines this week, it’s been Donald Trump who has made gains in the US election betting market.

Last week, Donald Trump’s US election odds were +175, which implied he only had a 36.4% chance of winning the upcoming election. However, his odds have shortened to +150, which implies he now has a 40% chance of winning.

As expected with Trump’s positive movement, Joe Biden’s US election odds have moved the other way. Biden was available in the betting market at -162 last week, he’s now currently priced at -150. Which means his chances of winning the election have gone from 61.9% to 60%.

Since the announcement of Kamala Harris becoming Joe Biden’s running mate, 59% of bets placed in the 2020 US election market have been on Donald Trump.

However, it’s actually the appointment of Kamala Harris which highlights why historical betting patterns predict Donald Trump winning the US Election.

Below you’ll see various examples where the number of bets placed have correctly predicted the outcome of a political event. This isn’t looking at the odds of the betting market, but the number of wagers placed.

Kamala Harris becomes Joe Biden’s running mate

Kamala Harris was the long-time favorite to become Joe Biden’s running mate, however odds aside, this is a clear example of how online bettors perfectly predicted the outcome of a political event.

In 2020 alone, a massive 30% of all bets placed in the Democratic VP betting market were on Kamala Harris, someway ahead of second most wagered, Susan Rice who accounted for 12% of bets.

In the month leading up to Joe Biden’s announcement, Kamala Harris accounted for 37% of bets, and was again the most popular betting option.

Online bettors predicted this one correctly.

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Donald Trump wins the 2016 US Election

Hillary Clinton was the favorite to win the US Election, and not many gave Donald Trump much. However, despite Clinton’s dominance in the betting market, Donald Trump was the most backed option by online bettors.

A massive 61% of bets placed on the 2016 US Election were on Donald Trump winning.

Online bettors predicted this one correctly.

Brexit: The United Kingdom leave the European Union

Nobody, nobody thought the United Kingdom would actually leave the European Union and the odds reflected this. However, online bettors were very confident that leave would be the winning vote.

Just over 73% of all bets placed on the Brexit betting market were on the UK leaving the European Union.

Online bettors predicted this one correctly.

Boris Johnson becomes the new Prime Minister

Boris Johnson was installed as the betting favorite as soon as Theresa May walked away from the top position in the UK. However, casting odds aside the betting public were very confident on who they thought would take May’s decision.

In the time between May’s resignation and Boris Johnson being voted in, Johnson had accounted for 39% of bets in the market. This was considerably more than the second most backed candidate which was Jeremy Hunt.

Online bettors predicted this one correctly.

What does this mean for Donald Trump in 2020?

As mentioned earlier, Donald Tump is no longer the bookmakers favorite to win the 2020 election. However, in 2020 Donald Trump has accounted for 53% of all bets placed in the US election betting market. In the last month, his dominance of the betting market has increased to 59%.

Therefore if the recent trend of political betting events were to continue, we’d expect Donald Trump to win the 2020 US Election despite the odds suggesting otherwise.

Online sports betting is legal in various states in the United States, however, unfortunately, you can’t legally bet politics. Our data is based on UK betting trends. Even though it’s the US election, it will be one of the biggest betting events not only in the UK but globally.

Find our which US bookmakers operate in your state

Even though you can’t legally bet on politics, US residents can still play Draftkings $100,000 fantasy game, and try and predict the outcomes of various events to win the top prize. 

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