Elon Musk New Political Party Odds: Will Musk Create America Party in 2025 Amid Trump Feud, X Controversy?

The status of politics in the United States remains starkly divided, with both parties issuing constant attacks on each other and voting sharply along partisan lines. Elon Musk has played a powerful role in the political realm in the last 12 months, using his status as one of the richest men in the world to impact elections and legislation.

He's been hard-charging on the republican side until recently, when he got in a fight with President Trump at the beginning of June. He left his post as the head of DOGE, the Department of Government Efficiency, right around that time. The fight became public on social media, with both men bashing each other and making ambiguous threats.

To make matters worse for Musk, his AI developed LLM, Grok, appeared to go off the rails with derogatory content on Tuesday night. As a result, Musk's head of X, Linda Yaccarino, stepped down on Wednesday morning from the resulting backlash.

Musk has been making comments over the past month about his Trump feud, saying both political parties are two heads of the same snake and are more of a uniparty than anything else. He has been trying to drum up support on X to encourage people to break away from the two-party system, suggesting he may want to start up that separate party. But the real question is will he really do it? Let's take a look at the Kalshi odds.

If you are new to Kalshi and want to bet on prediction markets like this Elon Musk political party, you can sign up for an account here and claim a $10 bonus when making your predictions.

Latest Elon Musk New Political Party Odds From Kalshi

As of Wednesday night when the dust settled, Musk is favored with a 50% chance to form the new "America Party" by the end of 2025.

It currently costs 50¢ to buy YES in this market, which amounts to +100 sportsbook odds.

This market peaked as high as a 83% chance over this past weekend, ramped up by the timing of Musk's tweets disparaging the current administration. Musk previously helped Trump get elected on the campaign trail with large donations and many public appearances. The two then worked together for months after the inauguration, but arguments over the "Big Beautiful Bill" spilled out into the public square at the beginning of June.

This is the current status on Kalshi as of Friday morning, a few hours before the event. These odds are correct at the time of writing.

CLICK HERE to bet on Elon Musk creating a new Political party in 2025.

What are the Chances of the New Elon Musk Political Party Being Formed?

Based on the latest trades on Kalshi, there is almost an exactly 50% chance of the party being formed, but it fluctuates largely on a daily basis.

It has been as low as 11% and as high as 83% in the past 30 days, indicating large swings based on his public comments.

New political parties aren't uncommon in the U.S., with disgruntled members often splitting off to try their own thing. But they don't usually stick or gain much traction, with the Libertarian Party and Green Party as closest challengers in recent elections, still only garnering 15% of the vote or less. They are not a true threat to the Republicans or Democrats, and it remains to be seen if Musk's cult-like following could make a dent.

How Does Kalshi Work and How Much Can I Win on Elon Musk Markets?

Instead of betting on typical sportsbook odds, you are instead buying contracts as you look to correctly predict the outcome of an event.

Let's take the "Yes new political party formed" Buy Price as an example of what you can win with Kalshi:

• A $100 investment on YES at the current price of 50¢. This is based on you buying 200 contracts at 50¢. If Elon does enact the party by the end of the year and you bought 200 at this price, you would land a total profit of $50.