2025 Best AI Odds: Google's Gemini Clear Favorite to Get Named AI of the Year in Final Weeks
The 2025 Best AI will be named at the end of December, and Google's Gemini 3.0 has a heavy advantage over the rest of the LLMs. Can ChatGPT or anyone else catch Gemini? Peter Alexis evaluates the best AI market on Kalshi as 2025 comes to a close.
Peter Alexis - December 10, 2025, 4:25 PM EST
5 Minute Read2025 Best AI Odds: Google’s Gemini Now a 98% Favorite to Win AI of the Year
Artificial intelligence hasn’t just shaped the major storylines of 2025 - it has dominated them. From market‑moving breakthroughs to political influence to everyday consumer adoption, AI has been the defining force of the year. Large language models in particular have accelerated at unprecedented speed, with rapid version releases and escalating competition turning the space into a constant arms race.
Earlier this month, AI was already the overwhelming favorite to be named TIME Person of the Year, and that momentum has carried directly into the race for Best AI of 2025. With the LM Arena rankings serving as the benchmark for the award, Kalshi traders are now pricing the contest as essentially decided.
Google’s Gemini family, which has led the LM Arena leaderboard for most of the year, has surged from a 75% favorite on December 10 to a staggering 98% as of today. Every other model has collapsed into long‑shot territory.
Bet on the Best AI of 2025 with Kalshi Here
Best AI of 2025 Odds
Best AI | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
Gemini (Google) | 98% |
ChatGPT (OpenAI) | 2% |
Grok (XAI) | 2% |
Claude (Anthropic) | 1% |
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Best AI of 2025 Odds Breakdown
Google Gemini (98%) Bet on Gemini with Kalshi Here
Gemini’s dominance has only strengthened as the year draws to a close. The LM Arena leaderboard continues to show Gemini‑3‑Pro and Gemini‑2.5‑Pro holding the top two positions with scores of 1486 and 1464, respectively - a margin no competitor has come close to closing.
On December 10, Gemini was already a commanding 75% favorite. Since then, continued evaluation wins and the absence of any late‑year breakthroughs from rivals have pushed its Kalshi price to 98¢, effectively locking up the award barring an unprecedented shock.
At this stage, Gemini would need a catastrophic scoring collapse or a surprise model release of historic magnitude to lose the title.
ChatGPT by OpenAI (2%) Bet on ChatGPT with Kalshi Here
ChatGPT’s decline has continued. GPT‑5.1‑High remains 6th on the LM Arena board with a score of 1444, and its market price has now fallen to 2¢, implying just a 2% chance of winning.
Once the early‑year favorite, ChatGPT has steadily lost ground as Gemini widened its lead and other competitors improved. While still widely used and commercially successful, its benchmark performance simply isn’t competitive with the top Gemini models.
Grok by XAi (2%) Bet on Grok with Kalshi Here
Grok’s early‑year surge is now a distant memory. Grok‑4.1‑Thinking still ranks 3rd on LM Arena with a strong 1452 score, but the market has fully priced in its inability to catch Gemini under the current scoring system.
Now at 2¢, Grok holds only a 2% chance of winning - a steep fall from the 33% peak it briefly hit in March.
Claude by Anthropic (1%) Bet on Claude with Kalshi Here
Claude remains respected for its safety and reasoning strengths, but it has never been a serious contender for the award. Claude‑Opus‑4.5 sits 5th on LM Arena with a 1445 score, and its Kalshi price has now dropped to 1¢.
At a 1% implied probability, Claude would need a late‑December miracle to reenter the conversation.
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