Who Will Attend Trump's State of the Union Address Next Tuesday in Washington, DC?
The State of the Union will be back on the menu next week when Donald Trump addresses congress and the nation on Tuesday, February 24th. Who will show up to his speech, and which politicians may boycott? Kalshi has a full list of odds for many prominent figures, check out the latest market projections.
Peter Alexis - February 20, 2026, 6:00 AM EST
5 Minute ReadState of the Union Odds: Who Will Attend Trump's Speech to Congress Next Week?
After not delivering a traditional State of the Union address in 2025, President Donald Trump is now set to give his first official State of the Union of his second term on Tuesday, February 24th. The annual address to Congress typically brings together lawmakers, Supreme Court justices, military leaders, cabinet officials, and invited guests, making attendance a closely watched political signal.
Prediction markets have turned attendance into an active wagering board, with Kalshi pricing in the likelihood of dozens of high profile figures appearing in the chamber. While cabinet officials and congressional leaders are near certainties, other names carry more uncertainty based on political dynamics, past tensions, or public schedules. Here are ten notable figures and their current odds of attending, along with context around their likelihood.
Bet on the State of the Union with Kalshi Here
State of the Union Odds: Who will Attend Trump's Speech in D.C.?
Pete Hegseth 97% Bet on the State of the Union with Kalshi Here
As a senior administration figure and prominent Trump ally, Hegseth sits near the top of the board. As United States Secretary of Defense, his attendance is routine. His near 97% probability reflects that expectation.
Susan Collins 96% Bet on the State of the Union with Kalshi Here
The Republican senator from Maine has historically attended presidential addresses regardless of party. As a sitting member of Congress, her attendance is highly likely barring unforeseen circumstances.
John Fetterman 95% Bet on the State of the Union with Kalshi Here
The Pennsylvania senator is also priced near certainty. Members of Congress customarily attend the State of the Union, and there has been no indication he would break from that norm, even as a controversial democrat that has broken with his sides ranks at times.
Ilhan Omar 89% Bet on the State of the Union with Kalshi Here
Omar’s odds jumped significantly. While she has been a vocal critic of Trump in the past, members of Congress often attend even when politically opposed. The market appears to believe attendance is still the more likely scenario.
Jared Kushner 86% Bet on the State of the Union with Kalshi Here
Kushner is not an elected official but has remained closely associated with Trump. His odds suggest the market believes there is a strong chance he would attend as a guest or administration insider if invited, especially as he has worked as an advisor in the Middle East peace talks.
Eric Trump 85% Bet on the State of the Union with Kalshi Here
Family attendance is common for presidents during major addresses. Eric Trump’s high probability reflects that precedent.
Nancy Pelosi 81% Bet on the State of the Union with Kalshi Here
As a former Speaker and longtime Democratic leader, Pelosi’s attendance would follow congressional tradition. However, political tensions may explain why her probability is slightly lower than current officeholders.
Mitch McConnell 69% Bet on the State of the Union with Kalshi Here
The Senate Republican leader has attended past presidential addresses regularly. His lower probability relative to others may reflect health considerations and recent public schedule adjustments.
Barron Trump 37% Bet on the State of the Union with Kalshi Here
Barron Trump carries significantly lower odds. Presidential children do not always attend, particularly younger family members who maintain private lives. The market is clearly less confident here, and Barron is currently busy with college at NYU on top of this.
Alexandria Ocasio Cortez 11% Bet on the State of the Union with Kalshi Here
AOC’s low probability reflects political opposition and the possibility of symbolic protest. While attendance by opposition lawmakers is common, some have chosen to skip in past years as a statement.
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