Who Will Attend President Donald Trump's State of the Union Address Tonight in Washington, DC?
The State of the Union Address will take place with President Trump leading the audience on Tuesday, February 24th in Congress. Amid recent Olympics controversy and government shutdowns, everyone is wondering who will be in attendance and who is boycotting tonight. Let's take a look at the latest State of the Union odds on Kalshi for tonight's ceremony.
Peter Alexis - February 24, 2026, 7:55 PM EST
4 Minute ReadState of the Union Odds: Who Will Attend Trump's Speech to Congress Next Week?
President Donald Trump’s first official State of the Union address of his second term is scheduled for Tuesday, February 24th, and prediction markets have turned attendance into one of the most actively traded political boards of the week. Cabinet officials and congressional leaders are typically near certainties, but this year a new storyline has created volatility across several names.
The controversy centers on the U.S. Olympic hockey teams. The men’s team confirmed they will attend following their gold medal win in Milan. However, the women’s team declined the invitation after backlash surrounding a joke Trump made following the victory. That split has added political optics to what is normally a ceremonial event and traders have responded accordingly.
Below is the updated board with expanded context on the biggest names and the most meaningful probability shifts.
Bet on the State of the Union with Kalshi Here
State of the Union Odds: Who will Attend Trump's Speech in D.C.?
Pete Hegseth 97% Bet on the State of the Union with Kalshi Here
Hegseth remains priced near certainty. As a high profile administration ally and national security figure, attendance would be routine. No negative headlines or scheduling conflicts have surfaced, which keeps him steady at the top of the board.
Jack Hughes 96% Bet on the State of the Union with Kalshi Here
Hughes enters the board at 96% following confirmation that the U.S. men’s Olympic hockey team plans to attend the address. As one of the most recognizable stars from the gold medal run, his presence is now strongly expected. The small upward move reflects traders locking in confirmation. His odds are unlikely to move much higher unless a public appearance is formally announced by the White House.
Susan Collins 96% Bet on the State of the Union with Kalshi Here
The Republican senator from Maine has historically attended presidential addresses regardless of party. As a sitting member of Congress, her attendance is highly likely barring unforeseen circumstances.
John Fetterman 95% Bet on the State of the Union with Kalshi Here
The Pennsylvania senator is also priced near certainty. Members of Congress customarily attend the State of the Union, and there has been no indication he would break from that norm, even as a controversial democrat that has broken with his sides ranks at times.
Ilhan Omar 999% Bet on the State of the Union with Kalshi Here
Omar’s odds have climbed significantly. Even outspoken critics of the president typically attend the State of the Union. The market appears to be pricing in institutional norms over symbolic protest. She waas 89% last week and now a super lock at 99% as she will be a vocal opposition to Trump tonight.
Jared Kushner 86% Bet on the State of the Union with Kalshi Here
Kushner is not an elected official but has remained closely associated with Trump. His odds suggest the market believes there is a strong chance he would attend as a guest or administration insider if invited, especially as he has worked as an advisor in the Middle East peace talks.
Eric Trump 85% Bet on the State of the Union with Kalshi Here
Family attendance is common for presidents during major addresses. Eric Trump’s high probability reflects that precedent.
Nancy Pelosi 81% Bet on the State of the Union with Kalshi Here
As a former Speaker and longtime Democratic leader, Pelosi’s attendance would follow congressional tradition. However, political tensions may explain why her probability is slightly lower than current officeholders.
Mitch McConnell 69% Bet on the State of the Union with Kalshi Here
The Senate Republican leader has attended past presidential addresses regularly. His lower probability relative to others may reflect health considerations and recent public schedule adjustments.
Barron Trump 63% Bet on the State of the Union with Kalshi Here
Barron’s odds have risen meaningfully from previous pricing. While presidential children do not always attend, the market now sees better than coin flip probability that he appears. Increased public visibility around the Trump family and the Olympic celebration angle may be contributing to the move. He climbed from 37% to 63% in the days leading up to the event.
Elon Musk 21% Bet on the State of the Union with Kalshi Here
Musk remains a longshot despite a small uptick. While he has interacted with Trump politically and financially in the past, there is no reliable reporting suggesting he plans to attend. Traders appear hesitant to push his probability higher without confirmation.
Alexandria Ocasio Cortez 2% Bet on the State of the Union with Kalshi Here
AOC’s low probability reflects political opposition and the possibility of symbolic protest. While attendance by opposition lawmakers is common, some have chosen to skip in past years as a statement.
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