California Governor Odds: Who Will Advance in California Governor Primary Election on Tuesday, June 2nd?
The California Governor race hits a major milestone on Tuesday when voters head to the polls for the Primary election. Can Tom Steyer or Steve Hilton get enough votes to advance across from Xavier Becerra? Let's take a look at this California Governor primary odds to advance on Tuesday, June 2nd.
Peter Alexis - June 2, 2026, 6:10 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadCalifornia Governor Odds: Will Tom Steyer or Steve Hilton Advance in Primary With Xavier Becerra a Near Lock?
California voters head to the polls Tuesday, June 2, for a wide-open governor primary that will determine the two candidates advancing to November’s one-on-one runoff. California uses a top-two primary system, meaning all candidates appear on the same ballot and the top two vote-getters advance regardless of party.
Xavier Becerra is the clear Kalshi favorite to advance at 92.7%, while Steve Hilton sits at 76% and Tom Steyer is back in the mix at 40%. Becerra also sits around 75% to win the governor race outright in a separate Kalshi market, showing how strongly traders view him as the overall frontrunner, not just a safe bet to survive Tuesday.
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Latest California Governor Primary Odds to Advance From Kalshi
Candidate | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
Xavier Becerra | 92% |
Steve Hilton | 76% |
Tom Steyer | 40% |
Xavier Becerra (92.7%)
Becerra is close to a lock to advance because he has the strongest establishment lane, the clearest Democratic base, and the broadest statewide profile. The former California attorney general and Biden administration Health and Human Services secretary has been leading in late polling, and the market has treated him as the safest candidate on the board. Recent coverage has also framed Becerra as the poll leader in a race where Steyer and Hilton are battling for the second slot.
The bigger question is not whether Becerra advances, but whether he is already positioned to win the whole race in November. His 75% overall governor market price reflects the likelihood that he either faces a Republican in deep-blue California or survives an all-Democrat runoff with institutional support. The primary still matters, but Becerra is operating from a much stronger position than everyone else.
Steve Hilton (76%)
Hilton is the leading Republican option and has a 76% chance to advance because he is the clearest opposition candidate in the field. In a top-two primary, party consolidation matters, and Hilton benefits from being the most visible Republican while multiple Democrats split votes around Becerra, Steyer, and others. Reuters noted that Hilton gained momentum after receiving Donald Trump’s endorsement, which helps explain why the market gives him a strong chance to reach November.
The challenge is the general election. Hilton’s overall win odds sit much lower than his advancement odds because California remains extremely difficult terrain for a Republican statewide candidate. Still, the primary market is about getting into the top two, not winning November. Hilton’s lane is simple: consolidate Republican voters, hold off Steyer, and turn the runoff into a clear ideological contrast against Becerra.
Tom Steyer (40%)
Steyer is the wild card at 40%. The billionaire Democrat has spent heavily and injected real money into the race, but the uncertainty is whether that spending has translated into a broad enough voter base to finish in the top two. Recent polling has shown Steyer and Hilton both with viable paths to advance, making this the most important battle on the board beneath Becerra.
The interesting wrinkle is that Steyer’s overall governor odds are stronger than Hilton’s, even though Hilton is more likely to advance. Steyer sits around 21% to win the governor race compared to Hilton’s 7%, because if Steyer does make the runoff, he could consolidate Democratic voters and continue spending heavily through November. That makes him a lower-probability primary survivor but a more dangerous general election opponent if he gets there.
California Governor Primary Betting Outlook
Becerra is the clear anchor of the race and looks extremely likely to claim one of the two runoff spots. Hilton is the cleaner advancement play because he owns the Republican lane, while Steyer is the swing candidate whose money gives him upside but not certainty.
The key question Tuesday is whether Steyer can push past Hilton and create an all-Democrat November runoff. If he does, the general election becomes much more competitive. If Hilton advances, Becerra’s already strong overall position likely gets even stronger.
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