Next Director of National Intelligence Odds: Who Will Replace Tulsi Gabbard as DNI with Bill Pulte Interim

Next Director of National Intelligence Odds: Aaron Lukas Leads DNI Replacement Market, But Bill Pulte Has Legs as Interim Office Holder

The Director of National Intelligence market is wide open after Tulsi Gabbard announced her resignation a little over a week ago, creating another high-profile national security vacancy in President Donald Trump’s administration. Trump has now named Bill Pulte, the head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, as acting DNI, but the permanent role still requires Senate confirmation if Pulte or any other candidate is formally nominated.

That uncertainty is why the Kalshi board remains scattered. Aaron Lukas leads at just 12%, Elise Stefanik is close behind at 10%, and Devin Nunes sits at 7%, while Pulte’s acting appointment appears more like a short-term bridge than a settled permanent answer for now.

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Next Director of National Intelligence Odds From Kalshi

Aaron Lukas (20%)

Aaron Lukas remains the market favorite because he is the most natural continuity candidate. He has been serving as Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence, and that role gives him direct proximity to the office, the intelligence community, and the transition process after Gabbard’s exit. His résumé includes work as a CIA station chief, chief of staff at ODNI during Trump’s first term, and a national security role focused on Europe and Russia.

The issue is that Trump did not simply elevate Lukas into the acting role after Gabbard’s resignation. Pulte getting the interim title creates a meaningful question about whether Lukas is actually the preferred long-term choice or just the most obvious institutional name on the board. At 20%, the market still gives him the edge, but it is a very soft favorite.

Bill Pulte (18%)

Bill Pulte is the biggest new wrinkle in the market after Trump named him acting Director of National Intelligence while he continues serving as head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency. That dual-role setup makes his candidacy difficult to read. On one hand, the acting appointment puts him closest to the job right now and gives him a clear loyalty signal from Trump. On the other hand, keeping his housing role suggests this may be more of an interim move while the administration evaluates longer-term options.

At 18%, Pulte is now ahead of the most of the other candidates, but the confirmation question is the key. The permanent DNI role requires Senate approval, and it remains unclear whether Trump wants to push Pulte through that process or simply use him as a temporary bridge after Gabbard’s resignation. His market position reflects that uncertainty: he is very relevant because he has the acting title, but not yet priced like a settled nominee.

Elise Stefanik (9%)

Elise Stefanik is close behind at 10% because she remains one of Trump’s most trusted political allies and has long been viewed as a candidate for senior administration roles. She brings political discipline, strong communication skills, and loyalty to Trump’s national security worldview, which could matter in a role where the White House may prioritize alignment as much as traditional intelligence experience.

The challenge is Senate confirmation and fit. Stefanik has been a prominent House Republican rather than an intelligence professional, and the DNI job requires management of the full intelligence community, including the CIA, NSA, FBI intelligence functions, and other agencies. Still, if Trump wants a high-profile loyalist with political durability, Stefanik makes sense as a serious contender.

Devin Nunes (8%)

Devin Nunes sits at 7% and brings the most obvious intelligence committee connection of the top three. The former House Intelligence Committee chair has deep history with Trump, especially around battles over the Russia investigation, surveillance, and intelligence community oversight. He also later led Trump Media, which gives him both political loyalty credentials and close alignment with Trump’s inner circle.

The question is whether Nunes wants the job and whether Trump wants him back inside government rather than in a political or media-aligned role. Nunes has long been a natural name for any Trump intelligence post, but the market is not treating him as a frontrunner. At 7%, he is more of a familiar possibility than a clear favorite.

DNI Betting Outlook

Pulte’s appointment as acting DNI is the biggest development, but it does not settle the permanent market. He has no traditional intelligence background and will remain in his FHFA and Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac roles while serving on an acting basis, which makes this feel more like a temporary loyalty-driven appointment than a clear nomination track.

Next Director of National Intelligence Prediction

• Lean: Aaron Lukas - 20% Chance Bet on the Next Director of National Intelligence with Kalshi Here

Lukas is still the most logical permanent pick because of his current ODNI role and intelligence background, but the market’s 12% price shows how uncertain the process remains. Stefanik offers political loyalty, Nunes offers Trump-era intelligence committee history, and Pulte’s temporary elevation adds another layer of chaos. For now, this is a true scramble rather than a one-candidate race.

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