South Carolina Senate Odds: Darline Graham Surging in Republican Special Primary as Votes Tally Begins
Darline Graham entered Tuesday’s South Carolina Republican Senate special primary as the prediction-market favorite to replace her late brother, Lindsey Graham, but the race remained competitive entering election night. With early votes now being counted, Graham has opened a meaningful advantage over Ralph Norman and Russell Fry. Check out the latest South Carolina Senate special primary odds and election-market outlook for August 11.
Peter Alexis - August 11, 2026, 8:00 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadDarline Graham Odds-On Favorite to Replace Brother Lindsey Graham in South Carolina Republican Primary on Tuesday Night
The South Carolina Republican Senate special primary is underway Tuesday night, with Darline Graham trying to secure the nomination to replace her late brother, Lindsey Graham. Graham was sitting around 48% on Kalshi earlier Tuesday, making her the favorite but leaving considerable uncertainty around Ralph Norman, Russell Fry and the rest of the field.
The first returns have pushed the market sharply toward Graham. With 23.6% of the vote counted in the latest snapshot, she leads with 31.4% and 25,432 votes. Fry sits at 23.6% with 19,076 votes, while Norman has 23.1% with 18,665. Kalshi now gives Graham a 69% chance to win the primary, compared with 24% for Norman and 11% for Fry.
Bet on the South Carolina Senate Odds and more politics props with Polymarket Here
South Carolina Senate Odds to Replace Graham
Candidate | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
Darline Graham | 69% |
Ralph Norman | 24% |
Russel Fry | 11% |
South Carolina Senate Republican Primary Candidate Breakdown
Darline Graham (69%)
Graham is the clear early winner in both the vote count and prediction market. Her Kalshi probability has climbed from roughly 48% earlier Tuesday to 69%, a major move as actual results begin replacing pre-election uncertainty.
Her 31.4% vote share also gives her an approximately eight-point cushion over both major challengers. The question is now whether that advantage holds as more of South Carolina reports and whether she can build enough momentum to become the overwhelming favorite as the night progresses.
Ralph Norman (24%)
Norman remains Graham’s biggest threat according to the market despite currently sitting third in the raw vote count. He has 23.1% of votes counted, narrowly trailing Fry, while his Kalshi probability has slipped to 24%.
His path depends heavily on the remaining vote. Norman needs stronger areas of the state to begin reporting while also separating himself from Fry as the primary alternative to Graham.
Russell Fry (11%)
Fry is currently running second with 23.6%, slightly ahead of Norman, but the prediction market is much less optimistic about his chances. His Kalshi probability has fallen to only 11% despite holding 19,076 votes in the current count.
That gap indicates traders expect the outstanding vote to be less favorable for Fry. He remains firmly involved in the race, but the market has increasingly moved toward a Graham-Norman battle.
South Carolina Senate Betting Outlook
Graham has produced the night's most significant move, jumping from around 48% before meaningful results arrived to 69% with nearly a quarter of the vote counted. More importantly, she currently holds a clear advantage over both Norman and Fry rather than watching one challenger consolidate the opposition.
Norman remains alive at 24%, while Fry has faded to 11% despite sitting narrowly second in the current vote count. For now, Graham is increasingly separating herself as the candidate to beat as additional results come in.
- Market Leader: Darline Graham (69%) Bet on the South Carolina Senate Odds with Polymarket Here
More of oddschecker
Affiliate Disclosure.
We are not a gambling or betting operator, but we receive a commission from these companies when we advertise their brands and refer customers to them (affiliate marketing). We provide information, odds information and links to websites of these companies. Some of the information made available on our site may be positioned as a result of a commission paid to us by a third party. We do not take or place bets/transactions and any information on Our Products is provided for entertainment purposes only.
