Israel Election Odds: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Replaced in October Election with New Israeli Prime Minister?

Will Gadi Eisenkot End Controversial Reign of Benjamin Netanyahu in October's Israeli Election?

Kalshi gives Eisenkot a 52% chance of becoming prime minister after the election, compared with 30% for Netanyahu and 7% for Avigdor Lieberman. More than $95,000 has traded on the market, with Eisenkot down four points recently, Netanyahu up one and Lieberman down one.

The important distinction is that Israel does not directly elect its prime minister. Voters choose parties for the 120-seat Knesset, and a governing coalition must then be assembled. No single party has ever won an outright parliamentary majority, making coalition arithmetic just as important as which party finishes first.

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Latest Israel Prime Minister Election Odds From Kalshi

Gadi Eisenkot (52%) Bet on the Israel Election with Kalshi Here

Eisenkot has emerged as Netanyahu’s most serious challenger after launching the centrist Yashar party. The former IDF chief of staff has built his campaign around security credentials, government accountability and an image as a political outsider despite briefly serving in the war cabinet following the October 7 attack. His son was killed fighting in Gaza in December 2023, and two nephews were also killed during the war.

Recent polling explains why traders still favor him despite some late movement toward Netanyahu. An August 10 KAN survey put Likud slightly ahead of Yashar, 24 seats to 23, but Netanyahu’s current coalition bloc reached only 52 seats. That leaves him well short of the 61 required for a majority, while Eisenkot potentially has more coalition partners available across the opposition.

That is the central case behind Eisenkot’s 52% price. He does not necessarily have to dominate Netanyahu head-to-head. He needs to emerge from election night with a collection of parties capable of agreeing that Netanyahu should no longer lead the government.

Benjamin Netanyahu (30%) Bet on the Israel Election with Kalshi Here

Counting Netanyahu out has repeatedly been a mistake. He first became prime minister in 1996, returned in 2009 and remained in office until 2021 before coming back again in December 2022. Across three separate stretches, he has now served more than 18 years as prime minister and is comfortably the longest-serving leader in Israeli history.

He has survived elections, coalition collapses, corruption charges, wars and repeated predictions that his political career was ending. There are signs of another rebound now, too. The latest KAN poll had Likud ahead of Yashar and found 41% of respondents considering Netanyahu better suited to be prime minister compared with 34% for Eisenkot.

This election, however, carries a different level of baggage. It is Israel’s first national vote since October 7, 2023, and comes after wars involving Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. Polling has shown low trust in Netanyahu’s leadership despite broad Israeli support for much of the military response, while Israel has simultaneously faced growing international criticism and diplomatic isolation over its military campaigns.

Netanyahu is also now navigating unusually visible tension with Washington. He recently rejected President Donald Trump’s latest Gaza plan, while the United States has pushed Israel toward de-escalation in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. AP reported that Israel’s diplomatic isolation has made Netanyahu increasingly dependent on the U.S. relationship, turning what was traditionally one of his political strengths into another potential election vulnerability.

Avigdor Lieberman (7%) Bet on the Israel Election with Kalshi Here

Lieberman remains well behind the two leaders at 7%, but his importance could be substantially greater than that number suggests. The former defense minister was once a Netanyahu ally before becoming one of his sharpest right-wing critics, and his Yisrael Beiteinu party received 10 projected seats in the latest KAN poll.

His clearest route to becoming prime minister would require an unusually fragmented result in which neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot can assemble a majority and smaller parties gain enormous leverage. That remains a long shot, particularly with Lieberman polling far behind both men as the public’s preferred leader.

The more realistic role is kingmaker. Lieberman has previously participated in opposition coordination aimed at replacing Netanyahu, and 10 seats could become extremely valuable if the anti-Netanyahu bloc finishes within striking distance of 61. In that scenario, Lieberman could help determine the next prime minister even if he never seriously approaches the office himself.

Israel Prime Minister Betting Outlook

The 52% price on Eisenkot reflects coalition mathematics more than an assumption that he will crush Netanyahu at the ballot box. In fact, the latest KAN polling shows Netanyahu recovering, with Likud narrowly ahead and Netanyahu holding an advantage when voters are asked directly who is better suited to serve as prime minister. The problem remains finding 61 seats for another Netanyahu government.

That is why 30% still looks substantial for a politician who has survived almost every apparent ending to his career. Netanyahu has spent three decades proving that being politically wounded is very different from being finished. But this election arrives after October 7, years of conflict, domestic coalition strains and an unprecedented degree of international pressure. Eisenkot does not need to erase Netanyahu’s support to replace him. He only needs to make himself the candidate capable of assembling the coalition Netanyahu cannot.

• Lean: Gadi Eisenkot (52%) Bet on the Israel Election with Kalshi Here

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