Brazil Election Odds: Lula da Silva New Leader Over Bolsonaro as Presidential Votes Tally
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has staged a dramatic prediction-market comeback in Brazil’s presidential runoff after entering Election Day as a substantial underdog to Flávio Bolsonaro. Lula had been the clear market leader during the summer before losing that advantage entirely, while Bolsonaro surged following his first-place finish in the October 4 first round. Here are the latest Brazil presidential election odds as the runoff vote is counted.
Peter Alexis - October 25, 2026, 6:15 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadLula da Silva Retakes Control in Brazil Presidential Odds After Stunning Late Reversal with Votes Pouring In
Brazil’s presidential election market has completed another stunning reversal.
Lula is now priced at a 78% chance to win the presidency in the latest Kalshi snapshot, while Bolsonaro has fallen to 24%. Those are prediction-market prices rather than vote shares, and the separate contracts do not necessarily have to add up to exactly 100%.
The movement represents a remarkable recovery for Lula. He was priced around the mid-to-upper 60% range during the summer before Bolsonaro steadily erased the advantage, eventually overtook him and then exploded higher following the first round.
Bolsonaro entered the runoff as the dominant market favorite and reached the 80% range after finishing first on October 4. Now, with live results beginning to arrive, the market has suddenly swung heavily back toward the incumbent.
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Latest Brazil Election Odds From Kalshi
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 78% Chance Bet on the Brazil Election with Kalshi Here
Lula’s path through the market has been anything but straightforward.
During the summer, the incumbent was priced around 65% and climbed even higher at points as traders treated him as the leading candidate to secure another term. That advantage began disappearing in September as Bolsonaro gained momentum and the possibility of a difficult runoff became increasingly important.
The first round completely flipped the market. Bolsonaro finished with 47.03% of valid votes compared with 45.16% for Lula, beating expectations and entering the October 25 runoff with more than 2.2 million additional votes.
Lula consequently went from the summer favorite to a major runoff underdog. His market price fell into the low-20% range entering Election Day while Bolsonaro climbed above 80%.
Sunday evening has produced the next major turn. Early runoff results placed Lula ahead during portions of the initial count, sending his Kalshi price rapidly upward and producing the 78% snapshot shown in the live market.
That does not mean the election has been decided. Early Brazilian election returns can shift substantially depending on which regions report first, making the official count more important than any individual market move.
Flávio Bolsonaro: 24% Chance Bet on the Brazil Election with Kalshi Here
Bolsonaro’s market trajectory has almost been the exact opposite.
He spent much of the summer as the clear underdog while Lula traded around the mid-to-upper 60% range. Bolsonaro gradually closed that deficit before moving ahead during September as polling tightened and the runoff became the central focus.
His first-round performance accelerated the move dramatically. Bolsonaro finished first with 47.03%, outperforming Lula and immediately strengthening the argument that conservative voters eliminated from the first round could consolidate around him.
The reaction pushed Bolsonaro into the 80% range, including prices as high as roughly 81% and above during the weeks following the first round. He remained around that level entering runoff day.
The live market has now reversed almost as quickly. Bolsonaro sits at 24% in the supplied snapshot as traders react to the early count.
It is a striking reminder of how volatile live election markets can become. Bolsonaro moved from summer underdog to overwhelming runoff favorite and has now watched that position disappear during the opening stages of vote counting.
How Brazil’s Presidential Market Completely Flipped
The full market history makes Sunday’s move considerably more dramatic than simply watching Lula jump during live counting.
Lula was the original favorite for much of the year and traded near 65% during the summer. By mid-August, his position had climbed closer to the upper-60% range.
Bolsonaro then steadily gained ground before moving ahead in September. His unexpected first-place finish on October 4 accelerated the shift, and his market probability eventually reached the 80% range.
The actual first-round margin was far narrower than those later market prices might suggest. Bolsonaro won 47.03% of valid votes, while Lula finished at 45.16%, leaving less than two percentage points between them.
Recent polling also tightened considerably before the runoff, with several final surveys showing the candidates essentially even. That created a noticeable contrast between a competitive polling environment and a prediction market that continued pricing Bolsonaro around 80%.
The early count has now forced another rapid repricing.
Brazil Presidential Runoff Live Outlook
The latest 78%-24% split represents the market’s reaction to an election that is still being counted, not a final result.
That distinction is particularly important in Brazil because different regions report at different speeds. Early national percentages can change as larger groups of votes enter the count, especially when the candidates have significant geographic differences in support.
What is already clear is how extraordinary the market journey has been.
Lula went from roughly a 65% summer favorite to a major underdog entering the runoff. Bolsonaro went from trailing badly to reaching the 80% range after winning the first round. Now Lula has surged all the way back to 78% during the live count.
Few major election markets have produced this many dramatic reversals during the same campaign. The final official vote will ultimately determine the presidency, but the prediction market has already completed another remarkable swing as Brazil decides between Lula and Bolsonaro.
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