A Beginner's Guide to Prediction Markets for the Midterms
New to election trading? Learn how prediction markets work for the 2026 Midterms with our beginner's guide! Trade House and Senate outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket US, and claim up to $50 in bonuses with codes ODDSCHECKER and CHECK.
Sam Eaton - October 30, 2026, 3:00 PM EDT
3 Minute ReadA Beginner's Guide to Prediction Markets for the Midterms
A prediction market lets you buy and sell contracts on real-world events, such as which party wins the House. Each contract pays $1 if the event happens and nothing if it doesn't, and its price, between 1¢ and 99¢, shows how likely traders think it is. For the 2026 midterms, the two main US platforms are Kalshi and Polymarket US, and both are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
If you're new, you can start with a bonus on each: Kalshi promo code ODDSCHECKER and Polymarket promo code CHECK when you sign up through oddschecker.
How prediction markets work
Every market is a yes-or-no question. "Will Democrats win the Senate?" has a Yes side and a No side. As of October 30, Yes trades at about 69¢ on Kalshi. That means:
- Traders collectively see roughly a 69% chance of a Democratic Senate.
- If you buy Yes at 69¢ and Democrats win, you get $1 back: a 31¢ profit per contract.
- If they don't win, your contract is worth nothing and you lose the 69¢.
You're not betting against a bookmaker. You're trading with other people, and the price moves as they buy and sell.
Prediction markets vs sportsbooks
Prediction markets | Sportsbooks | |
|---|---|---|
Election markets | Yes | No (state licenses cover sports only) |
Who you trade against | Other users | The bookmaker |
Regulator | Federal (CFTC) | State gaming regulators |
Sell before the result? | Yes, at the market price | Only where cash out is offered |
How odds are shown | Prices in cents (probability) | American odds such as -150 or +200 |
What you can trade in the midterms
- Chamber control: which party wins the House and the Senate.
- Balance of power: a Democratic sweep, a Republican sweep or a split Congress.
- Seat counts: how many Senate seats each party ends up with.
- Wave markets: whether Democrats hit set seat totals, such as Kalshi's "blue wave".
- Individual races: Senate races in Texas, Michigan, Ohio, Maine and Iowa, plus governors and more.
Your first midterm trade in five steps
- Sign up with Kalshi or Polymarket US through oddschecker and enter the promo code.
- Verify your identity. Both platforms check your age, ID and location.
- Deposit. Polymarket's bonus needs a $10 deposit; Kalshi's is unlocked once you reach its qualifying trading volume.
- Pick a market. House or Senate control are the best places to start because they have the most trading.
- Buy a small position. Choose Yes or No, enter how many contracts you want and confirm.
Five things beginners should know
- You can sell any time. If the price moves your way before Election Day, you can take your profit early.
- There are trading fees. Both platforms charge a small fee on trades that fill immediately. It's highest when a contract is priced near 50¢.
- Busy markets are easier to trade. Thin markets with little volume can have wide gaps between buy and sell prices.
- Some markets settle late. Close races, recounts and ranked-choice counts can delay payouts.
- Winnings are taxable. Keep records of your trades.
Is it legal?
Yes. Kalshi and Polymarket US are CFTC-regulated exchanges, and Kalshi won a court case confirming it can list contracts on control of Congress. Age and state eligibility rules apply; see our guide to where you can bet on the midterms near you.
Beginner FAQs
How much do I need to start?
Contracts can cost as little as 1¢. Polymarket's welcome bonus needs a $10 deposit.
Do I need to know a lot about politics?
No, but it helps to follow the news, polls and the odds. Our US politics odds page is a good place to start.
Which platform should a beginner use?
Both are straightforward. Many beginners open both to claim two bonuses and compare prices.
When is the election?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Odds are from Kalshi as of October 30, 2026, and change constantly. Kalshi and Polymarket US are CFTC-regulated exchanges. Age and state eligibility rules apply, and promo terms apply. The Polymarket offer is not available in Nevada. Trading event contracts carries a risk of loss. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
