Iowa Senate Odds 2026: Hinson vs Turek and How to Bet on It
Discover how to legally bet on the 2026 Iowa Senate race between Hinson and Turek using CFTC-regulated prediction exchanges. Compare Kalshi and Polymarket odds, evaluate candidate payouts, and see why Iowa is central to Senate majority seat totals.
Sam Eaton - November 2, 2026, 5:00 PM EST
3 Minute ReadIowa Senate Odds 2026: Hinson vs Turek and How to Bet on It
Republican Ashley Hinson is a narrow favorite in Iowa's 2026 Senate race, priced at about 51% on Kalshi in the final week of October against Democrat Josh Turek at about 49%. It's the only Senate race Kalshi traders rate a toss-up, and it's one of the few where the market and the polls point in different directions: recent polling has Turek slightly ahead.
Trade the race on Kalshi with promo code ODDSCHECKER or Polymarket with promo code CHECK when you sign up through oddschecker.
Iowa Senate odds
Candidate | Kalshi (Nov 2) |
|---|---|
Ashley Hinson (R) | 51% |
Josh Turek (D) | 49% |
About $10 million had been traded on Kalshi's Iowa market by November 2, and its margin market pointed to a Hinson win of about 1.2 points. Polymarket also lists the race; check the app for its live price.
Markets vs polls
This is what makes Iowa interesting to trade. A Marist poll in mid-October had Turek ahead 48% to 45% among likely voters, and Kalshi's polling average has the race essentially tied, at 46.0% for Turek and 45.8% for Hinson. The Cook Political Report rates it a toss-up. Yet traders price Hinson as the favorite.
The likely reasons: Iowa has voted Republican in recent statewide races, Hinson has raised about twice as much as Turek ($13.5 million to $6.3 million), and in the same Marist poll 59% of likely voters said they expected Hinson to win. If you think the polls are right, Turek at under 50¢ is the kind of price some traders see as value. If you trust Iowa's recent history, Hinson is the pick.
The candidates
Ashley Hinson (R) is a US congresswoman running for the open seat, which Republicans currently hold.
Josh Turek (D) is in his second term in the Iowa House and is a two-time Paralympic gold medalist in wheelchair basketball. He won the Democratic primary with 62.6% of the vote.
Democrats haven't won a Senate race in Iowa since 2008.
How to bet on the Iowa Senate race
- Sign up with Kalshi or Polymarket US. Use Kalshi promo code ODDSCHECKER for a $25 bonus credit after reaching the qualifying trading volume, or Polymarket US promo code CHECK for a $25 trading bonus after a $10 deposit (not available in Nevada).
- Find the market. On Kalshi, look under Elections for "Iowa Senate winner." On Polymarket US, click Iowa on the Midterms Hub map.
- Pick a side. At 51¢, 100 Hinson contracts cost $51 and return $100 if she wins ($49 profit). At 49¢, 100 Turek contracts cost $49 and return $100 if he wins ($51 profit).
- Consider the extras. Kalshi lists a margin market and a combined market on Iowa's Senate and governor races. Polymarket includes Iowa in Senate combos with races such as Ohio and Maine.
- Manage the trade. Sell at the current price any time before settlement if the odds move your way.
Why Iowa matters for the Senate
Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a majority. Kalshi's pricing has Democrats favored in Texas, Michigan, Ohio and Maine, which is why Iowa could decide whether a Democratic Senate is narrow or comfortable, and it's central to the Senate seat-count markets. See the wider picture on our US politics odds page.
Iowa Senate FAQs
Who is favored to win the Iowa Senate race?
Ashley Hinson (R), at about 51% on Kalshi in late October.
What do the polls say?
Turek leads narrowly in recent polls; Marist had him ahead 48-45 among likely voters in mid-October.
Is the Iowa Senate race a toss-up?
Kalshi traders and the Cook Political Report both treat it as the closest Senate race of the year.
Where can I bet on the Iowa Senate race?
On Kalshi and Polymarket US. Sportsbooks can't offer election betting.
Odds are from Kalshi on the dates shown and change constantly. Market prices are not predictions or endorsements. Kalshi and Polymarket US are CFTC-regulated exchanges. Age and state eligibility rules apply, and promo terms apply. The Polymarket offer is not available in Nevada. Trading event contracts carries a risk of loss. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
