Australian Open Odds Day 9: Rafael Nadal and Ashleigh Barty Headline Action Down Under

Australian Open Odds Day 9: Rafael Nadal and Ashleigh Barty Headline Action Down Under

A stellar lineup has assembled for the Australian Open quarterfinals. Join us as we preview both the men’s and women’s quarterfinal matches that are set to get underway on Day 9 of the Happy Slam. 

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Rafael Nadal vs Denis Shapovalov

Canada’s Denis Shapovalov looks to accomplish something he hasn’t done since his first meeting with Rafael Nadal at the 2017 Masters in Canada; that is, pull off the upset over Nadal. To be fair, if he pulls off the feat at the Australian Open, it’ll be a much bigger deal than his first win was. Nadal is gunning for a 21st grand slam time Down Under, and he’ll be looking to keep that hope alive. 

Nadal has the 3-1 head-to-head over the Canadian, having beaten Shapovalov in their ensuing three matches. On paper, Nadal is the smart bet to advance into the semis. However, Shapovalov will be a tough out for the Spaniard. The 22-year-old has improved his game, and he’s coming off a confidence-boosting run at the ATP Cup. 

Pick: Nadal in four sets at +275 (Bet $100 to Win $275)

Gael Monfils vs Matteo Berrettinii

Gael Monfils is in the midst of one of his best runs of form in recent memory. The Frenchman won the Adelaide International 1 tournament a fortnight ago. This impressive form has carried over to the Australian Open where he advances into the last eight without dropping a set. Monfils fell into the top half of the draw, into the section that would have been occupied by Novak Djokovic had the Serbian been allowed to stay in the country. 

Djokovic’s absence gives Monfils a rare opportunity to reach a grand slam semi-final (at the very least). Standing in his way is Italy’s Matteo Berrettini, who reached the Wimbledon final last season (l. to Djokovic). Berrettini has had to battle to reach the quarterfinals. His toughest match was a five-set marathon against Carlos Alcaraz in the third round. Berrettini advanced by the skin of his teeth, winning a fifth-set tiebreaker. 

Oddsmakers corner this match in Berrettini’s camp for good reason. The Italian has the higher ranking, and he’s shown his mettle and resilience in some tricky matches already. So, you could say, he’s battle-hardened. That said, Monfils is without a doubt the fresher of the two, and the veteran knows only too well how few and far in between such opportunities are. 

Pick: Monfils at +130 (Bet $100 to Win $130)

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Barbora Krejcikova vs Madison Keys 

The market for the matchup between Barbora Krejcikova and Madison Keys is delicately poised on a tight betting line. Krejcikova is tipped as the -130 favorite (or thereabouts depending on the choice sportsbook), while Keys is priced as the small +110 underdog. For all intents and purposes, this is a complete coin toss between two players that have contrasting playing styles. The fact that the pair will meet for the first time in singles only adds to the uncertainty. 

Krejcikova and her long-time doubles partner Katerina Siniakova beat Madison Keys in doubles twice. Most recently, Krejcikova and Siniakova topped Keys and Jessica Pegula in the R16 at Madrid. Both those wins came on clay. 

Hard courts tip the advantage towards Keys, where she can dominate and dictate play with her big serve and powerful strokes. If there’s one knockback on Keys, it’s that she has crumbled under pressure in the past. 

Pick: Three sets +137 (Bet $100 to Win $137)

Ashleigh Barty vs Jessica Pegula

Jessica Pegula has punched above her weight class to reach the last eight Down Under. Perhaps, few would have had Pegula emerging out of this section. But she did fall into an advantageous spot and came up against lesser opponents until the R16, where she faced Maria Sakkari. To Pegula’s advantage, the Greek came into the tournament with question marks. Her form was sketchy and confidence questionable. Pegula made short work of Sakkari as a result and advances into the quarterfinals for the first time at the Australian Open. 

Her reward is a tough date against home favorite and World No.1 Ashleigh Barty, who’s enjoying fantastic form Down Under and is widely considered to be the best bet to win the year’s first grand slam title. Barty won her first titles in singles and doubles in Adelaide at the start of the season. And she’s sailed through the first four rounds of the tournament without breaking a sweat or dropping a set. There’s every reason to believe that she can extend this solid form at the expense of Pegula. 

Pick: Barty in straight sets -225 (Bet $225 to Win $100)