US Open Odds: Sportsbooks Give Frances Tiafoe 18% Chance to Win the US Open

Frances Tiafoe’s run to the US Open semi-finals has been a special one. He’s the first American to make the run since Andy Roddick won it in 2003. Yet, he still has a few major hurdles to overcome that have sportsbooks believing a championship is unlikely.

Kyle Newman

Sep 9 2022, 6:55pm | 3 min read

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US Open Odds: Sportsbooks Give Frances Tiafoe 18% Chance to Win the US Open

Frances Tiafoe’s run to the US Open semi-finals has been a special one. He’s the first American to make the run since Andy Roddick won it in 2003. Yet, he still has a few major hurdles to overcome that have sportsbooks believing a championship is unlikely.

Men's US Open Odds

Tiafoe is given +450 odds, or an implied 18.2% chance to win the US Open. That’s third on the market, ahead of only Karen Khachanov’s +650 odds. He trails both Casper Ruud, +300, and his opponent Carlos Alcaraz, EVEN.

Alcaraz in particular is the hurdle that books are worried about. The young Spaniard is given -215 odds, or an implied 68.3% chance to defeat Tiafoe. Meanwhile, Tiafoe is given +185 odds, or an implied 35.1% chance to pull off the upset and reach his first grand slam final.

There are some who would compare Tiafoe’s breakthrough here to Roddick’s in 2003. However, Roddick was in the middle of a breakthrough season, he was actually the favorite to win the tournament at +300 prior to the opening round. Meanwhile, Tiafoe wasn’t even among the top 20 on the odds market. It’s rare in the Men’s game for someone to do what Tiafoe is attempting to do. The last time a player seeded 22nd or worse won a grand slam was Gaston Gaudio who was unseeded when he won the 2004 French Open.