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2023 Australian Open Odds: Tommy Paul Given 71% Chance to Advance to Semifinals

Kyle Newman takes a look at the men's Australian Open quarterfinal match between two Americans, Tommy Paul and Ben Shelton. Read on to see their odds to advance to the semifinals.
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2023 Australian Open Odds: Tommy Paul Given 71% Chance to Advance to Semifinals

Three Americans have reached the quarterfinals and one will reach the semifinals in the Australian Open. This is the kind of tournament that American tennis has needed for a decade. Yet there’s no time to celebrate, as the books see the Americans playing the tightest quarterfinal matchups.

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PlayerOddsImplied chance
Novak Djokovic-18665%
Andrey Rublev+21004.5%
Tommy Paul+35002.8%
Ben Shelton+80001.2%

Karen Khachanov pulled off the upset over Sebastian Korda yesterday and Stefanos Tsitsipas defeated Jiri Lehecka.

Of course, the tightest match is the all-American quarterfinal. Tommy Paul is given -245 odds, or an implied 71% chance to win. Meanwhile, Ben Shelton is given +220 odds, or an implied 31.3% chance to become the first American under the age of 21 to reach a grand slam semifinal since Andy Roddick in 2003.

For comparison, Novak Djokovic is given -625 odds each to win their matches, an implied 86.2% chance.

This Paul versus Shelton match is tight, an American will reach the semifinals. If Korda won that would have been the first time since the 2005 US Open when Robby Ginepri and Andre Agassi played for a spot in the finals that two Americans were in the semifinals of a major. This is a turning point for American tennis even if the books don’t believe in the guys left.

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A PR Associate at @OddsCheckerUS. Available for Podcasts, Radio, and TV. Quoted in Forbes, Chicago Tribune, Sports Illustrated, and more.

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