2026 Wimbledon Women's Odds: Naomi Osaka New Wimbledon Favorite After Upsetting Sabalenka
Naomi Osaka is the new favorite to win Women’s Wimbledon after knocking out Aryna Sabalenka, while Coco Gauff has already punched her ticket to the semifinals. With Karolina Muchova and Marta Kostyuk still alive in the draw, the women’s tournament is set up for a first-time Wimbledon champion.
Peter Alexis - July 7, 2026, 9:46 AM EDT
4 Minute Read2026 Wimbledon Women's Winner Odds: Can Naomi Osaka Complete Career Grand Slam After Hot Start to Wimbledon?
Women’s Wimbledon is moving into the final rounds at the All England Club, with the draw opening up after several major contenders fell before the semifinals. Osaka faces Muchova on Tuesday for a place in the final four, while Gauff is already through after surviving a three-set comeback win over Jessica Pegula.
The latest odds have Osaka as the favorite at +275, followed by Kostyuk at +450, Gauff at +500 and Muchova at +600. The winner of Osaka vs. Muchova will face Gauff in the semifinals, while Kostyuk is on the other side of the draw and still has to get through Jasmine Paolini before a potential semifinal against Linda Noskova or Elise Mertens.
2026 Women's Wimbledon Winner Odds
2026 Women's Wimbledon Winner Odds
Naomi Osaka (+275) Check out these Best Wimbledon Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Osaka has become the new tournament favorite after the biggest win of the women’s draw, beating world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka 6-2, 7-6(2) in the fourth round. It was a massive statement on grass, especially after Sabalenka had beaten her three times earlier this season, including at Roland Garros.
Her path has been increasingly convincing. Osaka opened with a 6-1, 7-5 win over Elsa Jacquemot, then beat Anastasia Gasanova 6-3, 6-2 in Round 2. She followed with one of her cleanest performances of the tournament, beating Daria Kasatkina 6-1, 6-3, before overpowering Sabalenka to reach the quarterfinals.
The key now is whether she can sustain this level against Muchova, who may be the toughest tactical matchup left for her before a possible semifinal with Gauff. Osaka is -145 against Muchova on Tuesday, and if she gets through that match, her power and serve give her a real chance to finish this comeback story with a first Wimbledon title.
Marta Kostyuk (+450) Check out these Best Wimbledon Odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
Kostyuk is the second choice on the board at +450, and her draw position is part of the appeal. She is not in the Osaka, Muchova and Gauff cluster, which means she can make the final without having to go through the current favorite or the American star in the semifinals.
Her run has been strong and battle-tested. Kostyuk beat Nadia Podoroska 6-1, 6-2 in the first round, then survived Anna Blinkova 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-3 in Round 2. She followed with a comeback win over Emma Navarro, 2-6, 6-4, 6-1, then beat Ashlyn Krueger 6-4, 6-4 to reach her first Wimbledon quarterfinal.
The next test is Paolini, last year’s Wimbledon runner-up and a dangerous grass-court mover who just beat Alexandra Eala 6-4, 4-6, 6-3. If Kostyuk gets through that match, she would likely see Noskova or Mertens for a spot in the final. That is a difficult path, but it is cleaner than the top half.
Coco Gauff (+500) Check out these Best Wimbledon Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Gauff is already into the semifinals after beating Pegula in a three-set comeback. She dropped the opener 4-6, then steadied herself and won 6-3, 6-3 to reach her first Wimbledon semifinal.
Her tournament has not been smooth, but it has been resilient. Gauff beat Tamara Korpatsch 6-2, 6-1 in the first round, then survived a major scare against Solana Sierra, winning 6-3, 3-6, 7-6(7) after trailing deep in the deciding tiebreak. She then beat Claire Liu 6-3, 6-7(5), 6-2 and rallied past Belinda Bencic 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 before taking down Pegula.
The concern is that Gauff has had to grind through several three-set matches, but that also proves she can survive without her cleanest tennis. She now waits for Osaka or Muchova, and either matchup will test her serve and forehand under pressure. At +500, the price is interesting because she is already one round deeper than Osaka and Muchova, but she may still need to beat the hottest player in the tournament.
Karolina Muchova (+600) Check out these Best Wimbledon Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Muchova is the fourth contender at +600, but she may be the most dangerous opponent for Osaka. Her all-court game, variety and ability to change speeds make her a difficult grass-court matchup for anyone who wants clean rhythm from the baseline.
Muchova has been steady throughout the tournament. She beat Anastasia Zakharova 6-3, 6-2 in the first round, then handled Zhang Shuai 6-3, 6-2 in Round 2. She defeated Mananchaya Sawangkaew 6-2, 7-6(1) in the third round before battling past former champion Barbora Krejcikova 7-5, 5-7, 6-3 in the fourth round.
The Osaka match is the pivot point. Muchova is the underdog, but she has the variety to pull Osaka away from pure power exchanges and test her movement, patience and decision-making. If Muchova gets through Osaka, a semifinal with Gauff would give her another winnable but demanding matchup before a potential final against Kostyuk, Paolini, Noskova or Mertens.
Women’s Wimbledon Odds Outlook
Osaka deserves favorite status because her win over Sabalenka was the best individual result left in the tournament. She is serving well, hitting cleanly and finally looks fully comfortable on grass after years of Wimbledon frustration.
Gauff has the best position because she is already in the semifinals, but her path likely requires beating Osaka or Muchova. Kostyuk has the draw advantage on the other side, while Muchova is the tactical wild card who could derail Osaka before the semifinal even arrives.
The tournament is wide open, and the next match may decide the market. If Osaka beats Muchova, she will likely shorten again. If Muchova wins, Gauff may become the player to beat by default, while Kostyuk’s path on the other side becomes even more important.
- Market Favoite: Naomi Osaka (+275) Check out these Best Wimbledon Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
- Favorable Draw: Marta Kostyuk (+450) Check out these Best Wimbledon Odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
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