San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies Prediction: Can Kyle Freeland, Nick Martinez Keep Runs Off the Board?

San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies Prediction: Can Kyle Freeland, Nick Martinez Keep Runs Off the Board?

The MLB season is now on day two, and while many teams get the day off, there are still ten teams who will play back-to-back and give us some action tonight. One team who plays again tonight is the Rockies, who pulled off an improbable upset over the Padres last night as one of the biggest underdogs of the day. We were on the right side in that contest, as we cashed in on the Rockies' first five innings as an article play. Tonight, we have another play on this game, but it does not have to do with a side.

San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies Prediction

Tonight's focus will be on the first five innings again. With a team like the Rockies, it's hard to trust anything about them once it hits the bullpen. They do not have a great bullpen and can be unpredictable, so usually, when I'm looking at the Rockies, I'm looking at first five bets. Tonight's will be the under. At first, you may look at Kyle Freeland and Nick Martinez and think this would be an over play, especially considering they combined for nine runs and went over the total yesterday, but I think we see a lower-scoring first half than you would expect.

Yes, Kyle Freeland struggled last season. He had a 4.53 ERA on the season and had a 9-11 record. His 1.41 WHIP wasn't inspiring, either. However, he pitched much better away from Coors Field. At home in Coors Field, Freeland was 5-6 with a 6.00 ERA on the season. He got shelled in Coors and rarely had a decent start. The same followed when the Padres were in town. Freeland had five total starts against the Padres last season; three at home and two on the road. During the three at home, he gave up four runs in seven innings, five runs in four innings, and six runs in 2.2 innings. In the three combined starts against the Padres at Coors Field, Freeland had a 9.87 ERA.

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However, in the two starts at Petco Park, Freeland pitched six innings with two earned runs and 5.2 innings with two earned runs. So on the road against the Padres, he had a much lower ERA of 3.08. This followed for the rest of his starts, as he had a 3.08 road ERA on the season against all opponents, a lot better than when he started in Coors. Given that Freeland seems to pitch much better on the road, and he has proven he can limit the Padres to two runs or less in road starts, I think Freeland pitches well tonight.

Nick Martinez starts tonight against the Rockies. Martinez has floated between being a bullpen pitcher and a starter, but he gets the start tonight to start his season. Martinez has faced the Rockies twice in his career, once in Petco Park and once in Coors Field. The start at home went well, as Martinez pitched 5.2 innings with one earned run. The start in Coors did not go so well, as Martinez gave up four earned runs in five innings. However, a lot of pitchers have higher ERAs in Coors Field, a notoriously hitter-friendly park, especially in their first start.

I like Martinez to hold the Rockies down more tonight than the pitching staff could last night for the same reason I backed the Rockies last night. The Rockies shell lefties but struggle against righties. The Rockies also usually don't hit as well on the road. The Rockies managed to put up seven runs last night but got half that action off a lefty and the other off two shaky relievers.

Tonight, I think Martinez will go five innings and keep the Rockies in check after an offensive explosion last night. On the other side, Freeland always pitches better on the road, and I think he can keep it to two runs or less in the first five. Therefore, my favorite play is the game to go under 4.5 runs in the first half.

San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies Pick

2 Unit Pick: Rockies/Padres First 5 U4.5 @ (-120) Bet $100 to collect $183 DraftKings has the best odds; click here to bet

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Padres vs. Rockies Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

• Date: Friday, March 31, 2023
• Game Time: 9:40 pm ET
• Where to Watch: MLB Extra Innings, MLB.TV

Click here for Padres vs. Rockies odds