Sunday Night Baseball Picks, Predictions and Best Bets: Can Phillies Jump on Martin Perez Early?

Sunday Night Baseball Picks, Predictions and Best Bets: Can Phillies Jump on Martin Perez Early?

Sunday night baseball features the defending World Series runner-ups and the new-look Rangers. The Rangers have wasted no time looking to be a contender this season, jumping out to an early 2-0 record against the defending NL champs. The Phillies now have to make sure they don't get swept to start the season. It's Falter vs. Perez. Can the Phillies stave off a sweep?

Phillies vs. Rangers Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

• Date: Sunday, April 2, 2023
• Start Time: 7:00 pm ET
• Where to Watch: ESPN

Get the latest Phillies vs. Rangers odds here

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Sunday Night Baseball Predictions - Phillies vs. Rangers

One thing the Phillies proved last year, other than to never count out a wild card team, is that they crush lefties. The Phillies were one of the best teams in the league against left-handers last season, posting a 28-18 record against left-handed starters. They were only 59-57 against righties. The batting numbers followed as the Phillies had the third-highest average against lefties, posting a .266 batting average against southpaws. Now, add in Trea Turner, who is at the top of the order, and he had a .886 OPS against lefties last season.

Bailey Falter gets the start for the Phillies, and while he is not an ace, I do have high hopes for him this season. He has good stuff, he just struggled with consistency last season. He would have a few really good starts, then get shelled, but when he is on, he's on. He's still young, and this is his second complete season in the MLB, so I like him to build off what he started last season. It is nice for him that he hasn't faced the Rangers, so he is an unfamiliar face to them, which is always an advantage for the pitcher. Last season, he also pitched much better on the road. He had a 2.42 road ERA and 5.49 home ERA with 10 games in each split.

Martin Perez gets the start for the Rangers, and he is coming off the best season of his career. Perez is back home in Texas after spending time with the Twins and Red Sox, and his first season back home was his best, posting a 2.89 ERA. This is his 12th season in the big leagues, and he was always a 4.5-5 ERA pitcher, until last season. However, I can't help but think he will regress a bit this season. He started last April with a 3.00 ERA, then had an unreal .64 ERA in May, then he started to cool off, posting an ERA over 4.00 in two of the remaining months. The Phillies batters also have familiarity with him. Alec Bohm is .538 in 13 at-bats against Perez. Nick Castellanos is .400 off Perez in 15 at-bats, and J.T. Realmuto is .333 in 15 at-bats against Perez. Trea Turner is also now at the top of the order, which means Perez may really struggle with the top of the order of the Phillies.

I don't see the Phillies starting the season 0-3, but they also have a shaky bullpen that has already shown its colors from last season this year. Given that, I am taking the Phillies on the first-five line. They are underdogs, which means we can get the half-run and win even if it is tied. The pitching matchup looks like it favors the Rangers on paper, but I actually side with the Phillies here. I think the top of the order will do well off Perez and that Falter will hold it down. The Phillies are tied or leading after five.

Sunday Night Baseball Pick - Phillies vs. Rangers

Pick: Phillies First 5 +.5 @ -125 (Bet $125 to collect $225) Get these odds at FanDuel now