MLB Picks Today: Our Expert's Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Picks
MLB Picks Today: Our Expert's Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Picks
Death, taxes, and Merrill Kelly losing to the Dodgers. Those are three things we know to be true in life. In 13 career starts against the Dodgers, Merrill Kelly has yet to earn a victory. Will tonight finally be the night Kelly breaks the streak and changes the tide?
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction
Pitching against the Dodgers is no easy task. Unfortunately for Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks, they have to face the Dodgers quite often. As Arizona takes on Los Angeles again tonight, Kelly will be looking to accomplish something he’s never done before beat the Dodgers. In 13 starts dating back to 2019, Kelly holds a 5.64 ERA, along with an 0-9 record.
Not many teams own a pitcher more than the Dodgers own Merrill Kelly. Even in a career year in 2022, Merrill struggled mightily against LA. In his first start of the season this year, Kelly held the Dodgers from scoring but was pulled in the third inning after his fourth walk. I don’t know if it's more of a mental thing at this point or the fact that the Dodgers see him well; maybe it’s a combination of both.
Max Muncy looks more like Barry Bonds at the plate against Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks. Muncy is 11 for 26 with an OBP close to .500 against the veteran righty. Mookie Betts, Will Smith, and Freddie Freeman see Kelly well too. The Dodgers' three best hitters all hold batting averages over .300 against Kelly. Considering Kelly’s lack of confidence and poor matchups against one of the best offenses in baseball, this could be another long night on the mound for Kelly. The 34-year-old simply can’t figure out how to beat the Dodgers, and that probably won’t change tonight.
Dustin May’s 2023 debut against Arizona last week was nearly perfect. The young flamethrower has been inconsistent throughout his career, though. Expect the Snakes to put up a much better fight at the plate tonight after just seeing May last week. With a total opening at 8.5 and moving to 9 after May’s shutout last week, it seems like oddsmakers are expecting a less-than-perfect start from the young arm tonight. Josh Rojas, Christian Walker, and potential NL ROTY Corbin Carroll are all off to great starts this year.
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One of these starting pitchers is getting lit up on the mound in this game. Whether it’s Merrill Kelly walking the bases loaded and getting pulled early or Dustin May struggling with his command, one of these two teams is putting up a crooked number on the scoreboard tonight. It’ll probably end up being the Dodgers who own Merrill Kelly, but either way, you can expect 10+ runs in this one. Take the over and enjoy the show.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Pick
LAD/ARI o9 (-105) Bet $100 to collect $195 DraftKings has the best odds; click here to bet
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Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
- Date: Thursday, April 6, 2023
- Game Time: 10:10 pm ET
- Where to Watch: MLB Extra Innings
Article Author
Krabs is a contrarian bettor who isn’t afraid to fade the public or go against the grain. His betting style not only produces winners but has changed the way many think about the sports betting process. You’ll find Krabs betting on anything from the NFL (at a 60% clip in 2022) to the KBO (8-1-1 in 2022). You won’t find many handicappers with more college basketball knowledge or insight than Krabs. A native of the “DMV,” you can find his work @Krabs_Bets on Twitter, or on Behind the Lines, his daily sports betting show on twitch.