Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals Prediction: Can Steven Matz Keep the Rockies in Check?

Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals Prediction: Can Steven Matz Keep the Rockies in Check?

The St. Louis Cardinals travel to Coors Field in Colorado to take on the Rockies after a series loss against the Milwaukee Brewers. Despite hot bats to start the season, the Cardinals find themselves 3-6 and have dropped five of their last six games. The Rockies sit at 4-6 after tying their series at home against the Nationals this weekend. The Cardinals are favored to get on back on track in this game as -145 favorites. Can they?

Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

A quick look at the Cardinal's record shows a poor 3-6, but it's not the Cardinals bats that have had trouble. The Cardinals lead the league with a .294 team batting average. Alec Burleson, Paul Goldschmidt, and Nolan Arenado are as tough of a 2,3,4 punch as you'll see in the league, as all three are batting above .300 early in the season. The Cardinals also have a pretty strong bottom of the order, with Jordan Walker, a rookie sensation, batting .353 early in the season.

The problem for the Cardinals has not been getting hits; it's been bringing them home. They are first overall in batting average, but they are 23rd in runs scored per nine innings. Situational hitting has been an issue early, and it is something I do expect to progress with the talented hitters they have in the lineup. The pitching has also been an issue. The Cardinals are 17th in the league in runs allowed per nine innings with 4.78, and they are 30th in the league in opponent batting average.

Taking the mound for the Cardinals tonight is lefty Steven Matz. Matz was acquired from the Blue Jays last season and went his first season with the Cardinals last year with a 5.25 ERA in 15 games. Matz didn't do much better in his first start this season, allowing four runs in 5.1 innings against the Braves.

The Rockies have also lit up Matz when they have seen him. The Rockies' roster is a combined .467 with a 1.285 OPS in 45 at-bats against Matz, and his numbers pitching in Coors are horrible. In three starts at Coors Field, he has a 9.2 ERA. The Rockies have crushed lefties the last few seasons, and they also hit excellent at home, so these numbers make sense.

An argument can be had that German Marquez is not much better, but he actually has pretty good numbers against the Cardinals at Coors. Marquez has won all five of his last five starts against the Cardinals at home, and he has not given up more than two runs in any of the five, recording quality starts in three of them. He is not an ace by any means, but he has had surprisingly good numbers against the Cardinals at Coors Field, which is a notoriously hitter-friendly park.

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German Marquez has not given up more than two runs in any start at home against the Cardinals, so I like him to continue his success tonight. The Cardinal's bats have been hot, but they have not been hitting well with runners in scoring position.

On the other side, the Rockies always hit well at home, and they have shelled Matz every time he steps in Coors Field. They crush lefties, and they should easily put up 3-4 runs over the first five tonight. I love that we are also getting a half-run here.

Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals Pick

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Rockies vs. Cardinals Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

• Date: Monday, April 10, 2023
• Game Time: 8:40 pm ET
• Where to Watch: MLB Extra Innings

Click here for Rockies vs. Cardinals odds