Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies Best Bet: Can the Bats Get to Bailey Falter, Nick Lodolo?

Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies Best Bet: Can the Bats Get to Bailey Falter, Nick Lodolo?

The Cincinnati Reds and Philadelphia Phillies meet for game one of the second head-to-head series of the season tonight, with the Reds playing this one at home in Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, Ohio. The Phillies took the first series 2-1 at home, and the Reds will try to return the favor after a hard-fought series against the Atlanta Braves, where they were swept. With these two pitchers going back at it tonight, what is the best play in this game?

Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

As previously mentioned, this pitcher matchup tonight is an exact copy of the game on 4/8, with Bailey Falter on the mound for the Phillies and Nick Lodolo on the mound for the Reds. In the first meeting between these two this season, both held it down, with Bailey going five innings with just one earned run and Nick going seven innings with no earned runs and only three hits. However, I feel like we have a better chance of seeing runs tonight.

The first meeting between these two may have ended 3-2, but it was a very cold, windy night in Philadelphia, not ideal for the offense. It was about 45 degrees, and the wind was in the double digits all day. Of course, Bailey Falter and Nick Lodolo have looked good to start the season and looked incredible on the eighth against each other, but the weather was definitely pitcher-friendly. Tonight will not be the case at all. It's a beautiful 88-degree day in Cincinnati tonight with some wind, but it is blowing out to left instead of toward home. Of all the games today, this game is listed as having the most hitter-friendly weather conditions.

Also, pitchers making back-to-back starts against the same team is always a sign of the over for me. Both teams literally JUST saw the opposing pitcher a few days ago. They still have his stuff in their minds and know what they will see because they just saw it a few days ago. Each pitcher dominated, but everyone knows that the opponent's batting average goes up a little bit with each plate appearance throughout a game because the hitter becomes more familiar with the pitches and gets an eye for their pitching release point, etc.

This exact point proved true with Nick Lodolo, specifically last year, in the exact same situation. Last season, Nick had a start against the Phillies, and he pitched seven innings with five hits and zero earned runs. Then, he had a back-to-back start against the Phillies again. That time, he gave up four earned runs in 5.1 innings. The same should follow with Falter tonight.

Falter and Lodolo are two young pitchers who have come out firing in the 2023 season, and they have super low ERA's so far. Falter has a 2.61 ERA and Lodolo has a 1.5 ERA. However, this situation does not suit them with back-to-back starts against the same team. Also, the Reds bats have been pretty hot, putting up 14 runs in the three combined games against the Braves.

The Phillies bats have been colder, but an 88-degree night in Cincy is exactly what can wake up the bats. The Phillies have a good lineup that will not stay down for long after a two-run game yesterday. The first meeting between these two pitchers a few days ago saw five combined runs. I think we see at least ten tonight.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick

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Reds vs. Phillies Start Time and Where to Watch

• Date: Thursday, April 13, 2023
• Game Time: 6:40 pm ET
• Where to Watch: MLB.TV

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