Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction: Can Josiah Gray, Nats Win Game 1 of the Beltway Series?
The Beltway Series between the Baltimore Orioles and Washington Nationals starts tonight. Can Josiah Gray and the Nationals win Game 1 of the Beltway series? Handicapper Krabs answers.
Krabs - April 18, 2023, 1:09 PM EDT
5 minWashington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction: Can Josiah Gray, Nats Win Game 1 of the Beltway Series?
The Beltway Series between the Baltimore Orioles and Washington Nationals is typically more exciting than most would expect. These two organizations hate each other and have been battling over TV contracts for the better half of two decades. Although these teams may not be elite, the games between them give off a playoff-type vibe. After the Orioles swept the Nats in the two-game series last year, who will win the first game of the Beltway Series tonight?
Nationals vs. Orioles Start Time and Where to Watch
- Date: Tuesday, April 18, 2023
- Game Time: 7:05 pm ET
- Where to Watch: MLB.TV
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction
To be completely transparent, I have zero clue who is going to win this game tonight. I do know it’s going to be close and low scoring, though. After the total opened at 9.5, we are starting to see some 8.5 totals pop up on the board. With only 43% of the bets on the under (on DraftKings), why is this total moving down so much? The answer: sharps think Josiah Gray has finally found his groove.
After a brutal first start against the Braves on April 1st, Gray threw two gems on the road in Colorado and Anaheim. In those two starts, Gray allowed only three runs in 11 2/3 innings. His command was there, and that slider was absolutely filthy. Last year, Josiah’s 4-seam fastball was one of the worst pitches in baseball. In the offseason, the Nationals and Gray decided that it would be best if he started throwing the cutter more instead of the 4-seam. We’ve already seems drastic improvements from Gray on the mound in 2023 with this adjustment being implemented.
The Orioles do most of their damage with the long ball. Ranked sixth in baseball in home runs with 22 on the season, Baltimore survives off the long ball and not moving base to base as they did for the majority of last season. Josiah Gray’s kryptonite since joining the Nationals has been giving up home runs, but it seems like that problem has faded since he’s switched up his pitch mix.
Gray only gave up one home run in his previous two starts, an impressive feat considering one of those games was at Coors Field, and the other was against Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. This is the version of Josiah Gray that the Nationals traded Max Scherzer for, and he is continuing to grow and develop right in front of our eyes.
Dean Kremer has not been as effective as he was in 2022, but he’s faced some potent lineups like the Red Sox and Yankees this season. Against a poor Nationals lineup that ranks last in MLB in home runs, Kremer should be able to limit the long ball more tonight than he could in Boston or against the Yankees.
Back Josiah Gray to shove and Dean Kremer to do just enough to pass the ball off to the Orioles bullpen to close it down. Take the under before the total drops even lower. This game will feel more like a high-intensity playoff game than a regular season game, and I want my money on the under with two young lineups playing in the spotlight.
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Pick
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