Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction: Can the Phillies Limit Framber Valdez's Edge?

Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction: Can the Phillies Limit Framber Valdez's Edge?

Aaron Nola and his team have been facing the same problem so far this season: they aren’t performing like the 2022 World Series runner-ups that they are. With key offensive players injured and Nola still shaping into midseason form, the start of this season has been tough for Philadelphia. Things are looking up recently, though, as the Phillies have won seven of their previous ten games. Now back to .500, will Nola continue to get better in every start he makes and defeat the red-hot Astros?

Astros vs. Phillies Start Time and Where to Watch

• Date: Friday, April 28, 2023
• Game Time: 8:10 pm ET
• Where to Watch: Apple.TV

Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

The Phillies aren’t the only team in this series on a heater. Houston has also won seven of their past ten games, defeating some formidable opponents in the Atlanta Braves and Tampa Bay Rays. With Framber Valdez on the mound, no chance Aaron Nola outduels the lefty on the road, right? That seems to be the public’s mindset, with 80% of the bets and handle backing the Astros to win this game tonight. Don’t be afraid to fade the public in this spot tonight. Recency bias may still linger from the 2022 World Series between these two teams.

Yes, Aaron Nola was one of the best pitchers in baseball in 2022 and currently has a 5.40 ERA after five starts this year. It’s not ideal on the surface level, but let's dive into the numbers. Nola’s worst start came on Opening Day, where he couldn’t get out of the third inning, allowing five earned runs. Since then, he’s allowed fewer runs in each of his next four starts.

The strikeout stuff isn’t there, but his command has improved since his first start in March, with the oddsmakers moving Philly from (+160) to (+130) on the moneyline. Nola has improved in every start so far this season, and it looks like the oddsmakers believe he will pitch even better tonight. Nola is averaging only 4.4 strikeouts per game this season, but his strikeout prop is set at six tonight against the Astros, who typically don’t strike out much. This could be a tell from the books on what they expect Nola to do tonight.

This Philadelphia offense has awakened since their brutal start to the season. Don’t look now, but it looks like the Phillies may have found another star in Bryson Stott, who’s been incredible for Philly in the leadoff spot. Brandon March currently has a 1.096 OPS, and Nick Castellanos is hitting .333. The Phillies hit LHP just as well as they hit RHP,  limiting Valdez’s edge tonight.

With two great pitchers battling it out on Apple TV, this rematch of the 2022 World Series is must-watch television. Back the road underdog with Nola getting better every single start. These Philly bats are hot and will be looking to avenge a World Series loss that I’m sure still keeps some of them up at night.

Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick

Philadelphia Phillies ML (+135) Click here to see which sportsbooks have the best odds for this play

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