Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction: Can Zack Greinke Quiet the Orioles' Bats?

Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction: Can Zack Greinke Quiet the Orioles' Bats?

The Baltimore Orioles will take on the Kansas City Royals in game two of a three-game series from Kaufmann Stadium tonight. The Orioles and Royals have been off to very different starts this season, as the Orioles are 20-9, while the Royals sit a 7-23. The Orioles took game one in a high-scoring thriller that saw a final score of 11-7 in favor of the Orioles. Naturally, the Orioles are juicy favorites in game two tonight, but I like the sneaky value on the home dogs.

Royals vs. Orioles Date, Time and Where to Watch

• Date: Thursday, May 3, 2023
• Time: 7: 40 pm ET
• Where to Watch: ESPN+

Click here to get the latest Royals vs. Orioles odds

Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction

The Royals will be without third baseman Nicky Lopez in this game, who has struggled at the plate this season, hitting only .200. However, his replacement, Maikel Garcia, had an impressive outing in his first appearance this season, going 2-4. Garcia is a young player with limited MLB experience, but his past performance suggests that he has the potential to be an asset for the Royals. It will be interesting to see how he performs in this game. He hit .318 with only 22 at-bats last season, and this is his first time back up in the majors since then. I am excited to see how the 23-year-old performs, and I think he could turn into a big piece of the Royal's offense.

On the mound for the Royals will be Zack Greinke, who has had a rocky start to the season. He is currently 0-4 with a 6.1 ERA, but his home record is much better than his road record, much like it has been for his entire career. In his long MLB tenure, Greinke has a 70.3% winning percentage at home, compared to just 51.1% on the road. Last season, he had a 1.91 ERA at home and a 5.32 ERA on the road. This season, he has a 9.2 ERA on the road in three starts, but a much lower 3.63 ERA at home in three starts. I expect Greinke to come out tonight and record his first win at home against a formidable but beatable Orioles team.

The Orioles will counter with Kyle Gibson, who has been solid this season with a 1.42 ERA at home. However, he has struggled on the road with a 5.4 ERA. Despite this, the Orioles have won three of his four road games thanks to good run support. Gibson may not get as much run support against Greinke pitching at home, which means I think he is due for a road loss here.

Mikael came out yesterday and got two hits and came around to score in a seven-run outing for the Royals, yet they still lost because they gave up 11 runs. Tonight, I think Greinke can keep the Orioles' bats a bit quieter and keep this game lower-scoring for the road team. The Royals are a horrible 1-13 at home, and while the Royals are not a great team, that number will progress to the mean. I'm backing the Royals on the first-five line to at least be tied here halfway through the game.

Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles Pick

• Pick: Royals F5 +.5 (-110) Find out who has the best odds here