Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction: Can the Marlins' Bats Get to Kyle Wright, Braves?
The Marlins face the Braves tonight. Can the Marlins' bats get to Kyle Wright and the Braves? Baseball handicapper Krabs answers.
Krabs - May 3, 2023, 1:01 PM EDT
5 minMiami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction: Can the Marlins' Bats Get to Kyle Wright, Braves?
Don’t look now, but the Miami Marlins are playing decent baseball. Winners of four of their previous five games against the Atlanta Braves and Chicago Cubs, this team has over-performed all preseason expectations up to this point. The Marlins are by no means the best team in baseball, but they are two games over .500 in one of the best divisions in baseball. With Braxton Garrett on the bump, can the Marlins steal one from the 20-10 Braves at home?
Marlins vs. Braves Start Time and Where to Watch
- Date: Wednesday, May 3, 2023
- Game Time: 6:40 pm ET
- Where to Watch: MLB.TV
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction
The Braves have one of the best rosters in baseball. It wouldn’t surprise me if they won the World Series for the second time in three years. Even if the Braves are the best team in baseball, they can’t win every night. The best teams in baseball still lose a couple of games a week. One of those losses may come tonight against Braxton Garrett, who’s been one of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball this season.
Garrett currently sports a 2.45 ERA and is in the 90th percentile in chase rate this year. Garrett has also cut down the walks significantly from last season, which was his biggest kryptonite. His slider has been disgusting in 2023 and currently owns a 27.3 PutAway% with his best pitch. He throws the slider nearly 33% of the time, which should cause problems for Matt Olson and Ozzie Albies.
For a pitcher who’s been in the NL East since 2020, the Braves really haven’t seen Garrett often. Matt Olson holds the most career at-bats against the young lefty and is 0-6 lifetime. There is something about this kid that the Braves have struggled to face. Garrett only gave up two runs against the Braves last season; Atlanta simply doesn’t see Garrett well at the plate.
The Marlins’ young lefty clearly focused on his command this offseason. Although he hasn’t produced the same amount of strikeouts as he did over the past few seasons, Garrett is significantly more accurate and will be a more complete pitcher in 2023. He’s traded strikeouts for fewer walks/more outs, and it’s paid off immensely.
What’s interesting about Garrett tonight is that his strikeout prop was actually bumped up from 4.5 to 5 against one of the best offenses in baseball. He has only hit this number in one start this season. The Braves are no longer top five in baseball in strikeouts like they were in 2022.
Are oddsmakers “showing their hand” with Braxton’s strikeout prop getting bumped up? It’s also worth noting that Miami probably shouldn’t be this short of an underdog against Atlanta. Kyle Wright is one of the most overrated pitchers in baseball, and Miami should be able to get to him tonight. Back the Marlins as a short underdog against one of the best teams in baseball... the Braves can’t win every night, right?
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Pick
Miami Marlins ML +120 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
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