Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays Prediction: Will Kyle Gibson Struggle Against the Rays Tonight?

Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays Prediction: Will Kyle Gibson Struggle Against the Rays Tonight?

The Orioles and Rays clash in a divisional series as two of the best teams in baseball. The Rays enter as the winningest team in the MLB so far with a 28-7 record. The Orioles are surprisingly not far behind at 22-12. The Orioles have lost back-to-back games, but they are now back at home to try and get back on track. Heading to the rubber first tonight will be Kyle Gibson, who has had a mostly forgettable season so far. There is a prop on him I love tonight as a result.

Orioles vs. Rays Date, Time, Where to Watch

• Date: Monday, May 8, 2023
• Time: 6:35 pm ET
• Where to Watch: MLBTV

Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Kyle Gibson has been in the MLB since 2013 and has been up and down since then. He has a 4.52 career ERA and has floated from team to team, landing on the Orioles for the 2023 season as his fourth team in the MLB. One thing that has always been true about Gibson is he is not a well-known strikeout guy. He gets outs behind the defense. He ranks in the 27th percentile for strikeouts per innings at .86, and he is in the 30th percentile for called strikeout rate, which means most of his strikeouts come on swings. Now, he faces the top offense in baseball tonight. The Rays have a collective team OPS of .869, which is 65 marks higher than the second-place Braves. They have looked completely unstoppable to far this season on both offense and defense, and they do not strike out often. The Rays rank 13th-lowest in strikeout rate, and they have the 7th-lowest strikeout rate on the road at 21%, meaning they strike out about once in every five plate appearances.

Gibson's strikeout line is set at 4.5 tonight, a line he has hit in just two of his seven outings this season. The two teams he passed 4.5 strikeouts against were the Rangers and Tigers. Against the Rangers, he barely passed at five strikeouts. In his last outing, Gibson failed to record even one strikeout in 6.2 innings against the Royals, giving up six earned runs as well. The Rays batters have also hit Gibson well. IN 34 combined at-bats, the Rays are batting .382 off Gibson with a .917 OPS. He only has six strikeouts in 35 plate appearances against the current Rays roster. I don't expect Gibson to make it more than five innings tonight, meaning he would have to have one strikeout per inning, a mark he has not hit in this season or in his career average, let alone against the top team in the MLB. I'm on Gibson to go under 4.5 strikeouts tonight and to struggle against this dominant Rays lineup. We are also getting good value on this line at Fanduel at -140 because I have seen it at -175 on DraftKings and even closer to -200 on other books.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays Pick

• Pick: Kyle Gibson U4.5 Strikeouts @ -140 (Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick)