BMatt's Premium NBA and MLB Plays for Monday

BMatt's Premium NBA and MLB Plays for Monday

(0.15u) Total Bases Lotto (+1488 on DraftKings)

• Nolan Arenado (STL) over 1.5 total bases
• Matt Olson (ATL) over 1.5 total bases
• Shohei Ohtani (LAA) over 1.5 total bases
• Corey Seager (TEX) over 1.5 total bases

Each player has a great matchup today. I ran this on DraftKings because they void any non-starters, which has come back to bite me a few times historically. If you play this on a different book, play it on one where they void non-starters OR wait until all lineups are confirmed.

(0.75u) Nolan Arenado (STL) over 1.5 total bases (-120 on BetMGM)

(0.25u) Nolan Arenado (STL) to hit a home run (+280 on FanDuel)

Arenado has now hit six home runs in his last ten games and cleared his total bases prop in eight of his last ten games. Arenado will face Brandon Williamson tonight, and on the season, he is batting .306 off left-handed pitchers with a .416 ISO, so the numbers all check out (on top of the fact that we've got great hitting weather tonight).

(0.15u) Nuggets/Lakers SGP (+1252 on FanDuel)

• Nikola Jokic (DEN) over 26.5 points
• LeBron James (LAL) 25+ points
• Austin Reaves (LAL) over 4.5 assists
• Michael Porter Jr. (DEN) over 6.5 rebounds
• Kentavious Caldwell-Pope over 1.5 3pm

(0.5u) Austin Reaves over 2.5 3pm (+100 on FanDuel)

Reaves has now cleared this number in six straight games, and who am I to not take something at even money that's been hitting at such a high rate? Here's a wild truth - Austin Reaves has easily been the Lakers third-best player down the stretch, and his minutes are hovering around 40 each game, so let's ride the hot hand here.

(0.75u) Derrick White (BOS) over 2.5 3pm (+120 on DK)

White has been shooting the ball this series and has cleared this number in three straight and four of his last five games. The Miami Heat give up plenty of threes because of their solid interior defense, and I'll take the plus odds on something White has been doing consistently this series - shoot the three.

(0.1u) Jimmy Butler triple-double/Miami Heat to win PPD (+3000 on FD)

Butler was on pace for a triple-double in game three of the Eastern Conference Finals, but Boston couldn't stay within 25 points and Butler was relegated to the bench as the backups (and some starters) took the clock down. The Celtics look defeated, and I think Jimmy Butler does it all for his team in a shocking 4-0 series sweep of the two-seed Boston Celtics.