Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners Best Bet: Can We Count on Luis Castillo?
Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners Best Bet: Can We Count on Luis Castillo?
When the Mariners traded for Luis Castillo, the expectation was that he would become their ace. He hasn’t pitched like an ace for the majority of the 2023 season. Castillo’s ERA is now sitting at 3.31 after getting rocked in Boston last week. Will the Mariners’ ace bounce back tonight against a historically bad offense, or will the Athletics show some heart and scrape together some runs?
Mariners vs. Athletics Start Time and Where to Watch
- Date: Monday, May 22, 2023
- Game Time: 9:40 pm ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics Prediction
The Oakland Athletics may go down as the worst team in MLB history when the season is over. With only 10 wins more than a quarter through the season, this team can’t hit or pitch. During Oakland’s four-game losing streak, they have scored six runs total. This is a perfect “get right” spot for Luis Castillo coming off his worst start of the season.
Pitching against the Red Sox in Boston is immensely different than facing the Athletics at home. Boston is the hardest ballpark to pitch in this season. There have been runs galore in Red Sox games all year, regardless of who’s on the mound. Now coming home to face a much more inferior lineup in the Athletics, expect Castillo to bounce back.
I despise betting on home teams to cover -1.5 spreads at home. The amount of times I’ve been burned by the home team winning by one and not even getting their ninth offensive frame is giving me PTSD just thinking about it. Instead of backing Seattle to win big tonight, I’m taking a different angle.
Castillo has given up 17 runs in his previous five starts, but his earned runs allowed prop is currently sitting at 1.5 juiced to the under. Oddsmakers are expecting Castillo to deal against Oakland tonight with his runs allowed prop set this low. Considering how poorly the Mariners’ ace looked in Boston last week, nobody will be rushing to the books to bet Castillo’s under 1.5 earned runs prop tonight. This is exactly when we want to “buy low” on Castillo. Even though he’s facing the worst offense in baseball, this prop is very telling considering how low it’s set and how poorly Castillo has pitched recently.
Instead of backing the Mariners on the runline, isolate Castillo and back him to throw a gem against debatably the worst team in MLB history. Besides Tony Kemp, nobody in this lineup has any previous success against Castillo. Although it might be a square angle, backing Castillo to give up less than two runs tonight is a sharp prop considering his recent struggles. Don’t be surprised if you check your phone tonight and see that La Piedra threw a complete game shutout against the lowly Athletics.
Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics Pick
Luis Castillo u1.5 earned runs allowed (-125) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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Article Author
Krabs is a contrarian bettor who isn’t afraid to fade the public or go against the grain. His betting style not only produces winners but has changed the way many think about the sports betting process. You’ll find Krabs betting on anything from the NFL (at a 60% clip in 2022) to the KBO (8-1-1 in 2022). You won’t find many handicappers with more college basketball knowledge or insight than Krabs. A native of the “DMV,” you can find his work @Krabs_Bets on Twitter, or on Behind the Lines, his daily sports betting show on twitch.