Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Prediction: Should You Fade Patrick Corbin, Nationals?
The Kansas City Royals and the Washington Nationals kick off their three-game series tonight. Should you fade Patrick Corbin and the Nationals? Handicapper Krabs explains why you should.
Krabs - May 26, 2023, 4:55 PM EDT
5 minKansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Prediction: Should You Fade Patrick Corbin, Nationals?
Patrick Corbin has been really good lately. He’s been a little too good, and that’s coming from a Washington Nationals fan. The veteran lefty has stopped throwing his slider as much (thankfully), going with the sinker more often. The result: fewer strikeouts but significantly more outs and fewer runs. The Nats lefty has given up three or fewer runs in each of his previous seven starts. Patrick Corbin was the worst starting pitcher in baseball last season. In 2023, he is not. Will the crafty veteran continue to see success with his new pitch mix, or will the Kansas Royals play spoiler on the Corbin comeback tour?
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Prediction
When I saw the Royals open up a (-134) favorite on FanDuel, I thought it was a mistake. The line has slowly crept back to a Pick ‘Em, but either way, that might be the craziest opening line I’ve seen all season. Patrick Corbin may be handing Jordan Lyles the crown for the worst pitcher in baseball if the Royals’ veteran continues his struggles.
In the ten games, Lyles has pitched in this season, the Royals have yet to win a game. He’s earned the loss in eight of those starts. His ERA currently sits at 7.15, the worst in baseball. The Nationals are playing good baseball right now… why did the Royals open up a favorite in this game tonight?
As the self-proclaimed No. 1 fan of Patrick Corbin, I’ve checked the lines in every single one of his starts this season. His recent success has earned him some respect from the oddsmakers. My point is it’s insane to see Jordan Lyles as a favorite against him, considering how poorly he’s pitched this year.
Although Lyles currently holds the worst ERA in baseball, he does have good numbers in a limited sample against the Nationals in his career. The Nationals player with the most hits against Lyles in his career is Trevor Williams, a pitcher in the Nationals rotation. His two hits lead all Nationals “hitters” in hits, with two, against Jordan Lyles. The rest of the Nats either haven't faced him or haven’t faired well. Either way, Lyles has the advantage here.
The wind will be blowing tonight, which could benefit Jordan Lyles significantly. With a fly ball rate over 37% (league average is 26%), the wind and Washington’s lack of power present value on the struggling veteran tonight. Even with the line movement toward the Nationals, this opener is too crazy not to play.
You could attribute the line movement to the significant amount of bets and handle backing the Nationals both to win and cover the run line tonight. The Nationals are the public side tonight, a rare occurrence. Fade the public and back the Royals to earn their eighth win at home this season.
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Pick
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