Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction: Can Andrew Abbott Show Out in his MLB Debut?
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction: Can Andrew Abbott Show Out in his MLB Debut?
The Brewers have taken all three games in this series and are threatening to sweep the Reds tonight. However, the Reds are -130 favorites tonight on the money line, despite sending out a rookie who is making his MLB debut tonight. That rookie is Andrew Abbott, and Red's fans should be excited to see this young man's face in the rotation.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Date, Time and Where to Watch
- Date: Monday, June 5, 2023
- Time: 7:10
- Where to Watch: MLBTV
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
Andrew Abbott is a left-handed pitcher who pitched in the college at Virginia. He was originally drafted by the Yankees, but he found his way into the Reds organization and pitched in AA and most recently AAA before getting his call-up for his first start today.
Abbott has done well in the minors, posting a 3.05 ERA in seven outings in AAA in 2023. However, more impressively, he struck out 54 in 38 total innings in those seven outings. That is my focus today for Abbott.
Abbott's 54 strikeouts in 38 innings gives him a 1.42 strikeout/innings rate, which is fantastic. His K/9 is at 12.7, which is through the roof. Sure, that was in the minors, so it's hard to tell if it will translate, but Abbott is a strikeout pitcher thanks to his changeup. The changeup has a 41% missed-bat rate for Abbott in 2023, which has made him confident in his newer pitch. Abbott was primarily a fastball/curveball pitcher before adding the changeup to his arsenal, and it has done wonders for his strikeout rate. Abbott is currently ranked as the 95th-highest prospect in the MLB pipeline right now, and he is the second-highest-rated left-handed pitcher that is league-ready in the MLB prospect rankings right now behind DL Hall of the Orioles organization.
On top of all that, another reason I love Abbott to have success against the Brewers tonight is the Brewers' struggles against lefty pitching this season. The Brewers are currently batting a league-low .210 against left-handed pitching and have a league-low .628 OPS against Southpaws. Abbott is a lefty, so he has a great matchup for his debut against the worst team against left-handed pitching in 2023. The Brewers are also 26th in the league with a 25% strikeout rate this season.
Abbott's coach at Virginia said Abbott is one of the best pitchers he has coached in his 20 years and is one of the most determined players he has coached. Abbott is a highly-ranked prospect with exceptional strikeout pitches, and he has a great matchup against a team that has not done well against lefties this season. I love Abbott to excel tonight and show out in his debut. His line is at 5.5 strikeouts, and I am all over the over. His alternate strikeouts over 7.5 and the Reds to win is also +550 on Fanduel, and I don't hate that as a longshot.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick
- PICK: 2 units - Andrew Abbott Over 5.5 Strikeouts @ -110 Click here to see the best odds for this pick
- PICK: 1 unit - Reds ML @ -128 Click here to see the best odds for this pick
MLB Odds
Article Author
Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.