WeBeatTheSpread's Premium Rangers vs. Cardinals Pick

WeBeatTheSpread's Premium Rangers vs. Cardinals Pick

The St. Louis Cardinals are in the midst of a slump right now and have lost four straight games, including a walk-off loss last night after battling back from down 1-3. The Texas Rangers look like one of the best teams in the MLB right now and are slowly catching the Tampa Bay Rays. Can Matthew Liberatore give the Cardinals the spark they need for a win tonight? I don't think so, but instead of backing the Rangers, I'm fading Liberatore's strikeouts prop in this spot.

The Rangers only struck out eight times in yesterday's game, and Wainwright finished with just three as the starter. A similar night could be in store for Liberatore, who is not a strikeout pitcher. Matthew Liberatore ranks in just the 20th percentile with .82 strikeouts per inning pitched, and he is in the 14th percentile for swinging strikes. He relies on getting outs by pitching to weak contact and grounders, which is honestly a good matchup against the Rangers, who don't strike out much. The Rangers rank seventh in strikeouts against lefty pitchers this season and have also crushed left-handed pitching. The Rangers rank third in OPS against southpaws this season and have been nearly unstoppable at the plate.

There is no real weak spot in their lineup right now, as even the seven, eight, and nine hitters (Mitch Garver, Ezequiel Duran, and Leody Taveras) are hitting .313, .307, and .298. This is not a fun lineup for any pitcher to face right now. They are also filled with righty bats that do not strike out against lefties, except for Corey Seager and Nathaniel Lowe, except for Seager is actually hitting better against lefties than righties.

Aside from Liberatore's strikeout struggles, he does also not pitch deep into games. In fact, since he started in the MLB last season, he has not pitched more than five innings, even once. Given that he has not been past five innings once, and he is only averaging .8 strikeouts per innings, even if he went five innings tonight, he would be teetering on this line.

In the 12 MLB outings of his career, Liberatore has passed 4.5 strikeouts three times. Two were against the Milwaukee Brewers, who are dead last in the league against lefty pitchers and rank 27th in strikeout rate. It's no surprise Liberatore had success against them. The only other time was against the Pittsburgh Pirates last season when they were not nearly as good as they are this season. The Rangers are one of the top offenses in the league and have not struck out much this season. Liberatore may not even make it five innings, and even if he does, I would not be surprised if he only finished with 2-3 strikeouts. This line is juiced pretty heavily, but I'm not worried at all about this one hitting.

Pick: Matthew Liberatore Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-166) Bet $100 to collect $160 FanDuel has the best odds