Cleveland Guardians vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction: Can Aaron Civale Rack Up the Strikeouts?
The Cleveland Guardians host the Boston Red Sox tonight for the final game in their series. Can Aaron Civale rack up the strikeouts? Ben Rajavuori provides his prediction and best bet.
Ben Rajavuori - June 8, 2023, 4:46 PM EDT
5 minCleveland Guardians vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction: Can Aaron Civale Rack Up the Strikeouts?
The Cleveland Guardians host the Boston Red Sox in a rubber match tonight from Progressive Field in Cleveland, with the series tied 1-1. The Red Sox will send out Matt Dermody for his first start of the season and his first start in a Red Sox uniform, while the Guardians send out Aaron Civale. How will Civale do tonight? Can he rack up the strikeouts?
Guardians vs. Red Sox Start Time and Where to Watch
- Date: Thursday, June 8, 2023
- Start Time: 7:10 pm ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
Cleveland Guardians vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction
Even if Civale does have a good outing tonight, I do not expect him to get a lot of strikeouts, which is where my favorite bet is in this game. Civale's strikeout line is 4.5 tonight with slight juice to the under, and I will take it all day. Civale has had three starts so far this season, two against the Mariners and his last outing, which was against the Twins. In these three starts, Civale has had three, five, and four strikeouts in order of each start chronologically.
It's important to note that both the Seattle Mariners and Minnesota Twins strike out a LOT. In fact, the Twins are dead last in the MLB with a 26.9% strikeout rate, and the Mariners are 28th with a 25.9% strikeout rate. After his first three starts, Civale is in the eighth percentile in strikeouts per inning with .7 and 15th in swinging strike rate at 8.3%.
On top of that, the Red Sox do not strike out much. The Sox are loaded with talented bats that can take pitches and work long at-bats without missing the ball too much. They get out on balls in play, and that plays into Civale's pitching, which gets more outs on balls in play. The Red Sox have the fourth-lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching in 2023, and they have just a 19% strikeout rate over their last three games.
Civale only had one start against the Red Sox in his career, which was last season when he went four innings with three earned runs and just two strikeouts. Civale is not really known for being a big strikeout pitcher, and that should continue tonight. He works off forcing weak contact, not no contact. His strikeout numbers are even low this season over his three starts against two of the most strikeout-happy teams in the league. I doubt he gets five or more tonight against the Red Sox.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Boston Red Sox Pick
2 Unit Pick: Aaron Civale Under 4.5 Strikeouts -113 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
MLB Odds
